JSMR Mar2022

JSMR

Contact our analyst Eka

36% potential return, BUY
30th March 2022
Price Rp 3830
Target price Rp5210

Higher volumes in 4Q2021

With the decline in Covid-19 cases and the easing of PPKM, mobility is starting to rise leading to an increase in toll transaction volume and revenues in 4Q2021.
JSMR transaction volume increased +22% YoY and 33.4% QoQ in 4Q2021. Toll revenues started to increase in mid November, 11% higher than normal conditions and reached a peak in mid December with a 22% increase compared to normal conditions.
For 2021FY, JSMR’s total transaction volume increased +9% YoY to 1.06 billion vehicle transactions. JSMR toll revenue increased +23% YoY to IDR 10.78 trillion, with subsidiaries recording double digit growth of +66.56% to IDR 2.79 trillion while the parent saw an increase of 12.8% YoY to IDR 7.99 trillion.
In 2021, JSMR increased tariffs after delaying the increase in 2020. In February 2022, JSMR also increased tariffs for the Jakarta inner ring road, as well as for the Bali – Mandara, and Surabaya – Mojokerto toll roads. There will be further tariff adjustments later in 2022.
We expect the higher volume of transactions will continue in 2022 as in February 2022 JSMR’s consolidated revenue was 4% above normal conditions and public mobility continues to increase due to the easing of PPKM restrictions.

Higher quarterly Profit

After a loss in 3Q2021, JSMR recorded a net profit of IDR 865.8 billion in the 4Q2021, +152% YoY. Apart from higher volumes & tariffs, the Increase in 4Q2021 also came from gains from divesting toll roads. In 2021. JSMR divested its shares in PT Marga Lingkar Jakarta (14%) with a gain on divestment of IDR 787 billion and PT Jasamarga Pandaan Malang (9%) with a gain on divestment of IDR 797 billion. For 2021, JSMR booked net income of IDR 1.62 trillion, 222.4% growth from a year earlier.
EBITDA increased +31% YoY to IDR 7.8 trillion in 2021 and the EBITDA margin increased to 67% from 62%.
We expect better 2022 traffic volume and revenue, with 2022 revenue expected to reach IDR 13.4 trillion or +14% YoY growth, which will result in a net profit of IDR 2.12 trillion, growth of +32% YoY.

Valuation: TP 5,210, Maintain BUY

Our target for JSMR share price is IDR 5,210, offering investors a potential return of 36%, we maintain our recommendation to BUY. This would translate to a 2022F PE of 16x. Buy.