JSMR
Contact our analyst Eka
36% potential return, BUY
30th March 2022
Price Rp 3830
Target price Rp5210
30th March 2022
Price Rp 3830
Target price Rp5210
Higher volumes in 4Q2021
Higher quarterly Profit
Valuation: TP 5,210, Maintain BUY
- With the decline in Covid-19 cases and the easing of PPKM, mobility is starting to rise leading to an increase in toll transaction volume and revenues in 4Q2021.
- JSMR transaction volume increased +22% YoY and 33.4% QoQ in 4Q2021. Toll revenues started to increase in mid November, 11% higher than normal conditions and reached a peak in mid December with a 22% increase compared to normal conditions.
- For 2021FY, JSMR’s total transaction volume increased +9% YoY to 1.06 billion vehicle transactions. JSMR toll revenue increased +23% YoY to IDR 10.78 trillion, with subsidiaries recording double digit growth of +66.56% to IDR 2.79 trillion while the parent saw an increase of 12.8% YoY to IDR 7.99 trillion.
- In 2021, JSMR increased tariffs after delaying the increase in 2020. In February 2022, JSMR also increased tariffs for the Jakarta inner ring road, as well as for the Bali – Mandara, and Surabaya – Mojokerto toll roads. There will be further tariff adjustments later in 2022.
- We expect the higher volume of transactions will continue in 2022 as in February 2022 JSMR’s consolidated revenue was 4% above normal conditions and public mobility continues to increase due to the easing of PPKM restrictions.
Higher quarterly Profit
- After a loss in 3Q2021, JSMR recorded a net profit of IDR 865.8 billion in the 4Q2021, +152% YoY. Apart from higher volumes & tariffs, the Increase in 4Q2021 also came from gains from divesting toll roads. In 2021. JSMR divested its shares in PT Marga Lingkar Jakarta (14%) with a gain on divestment of IDR 787 billion and PT Jasamarga Pandaan Malang (9%) with a gain on divestment of IDR 797 billion. For 2021, JSMR booked net income of IDR 1.62 trillion, 222.4% growth from a year earlier.
- EBITDA increased +31% YoY to IDR 7.8 trillion in 2021 and the EBITDA margin increased to 67% from 62%.
- We expect better 2022 traffic volume and revenue, with 2022 revenue expected to reach IDR 13.4 trillion or +14% YoY growth, which will result in a net profit of IDR 2.12 trillion, growth of +32% YoY.
Valuation: TP 5,210, Maintain BUY
- Our target for JSMR share price is IDR 5,210, offering investors a potential return of 36%, we maintain our recommendation to BUY. This would translate to a 2022F PE of 16x. Buy.