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JSMR

Contact our analyst Eka
24% potential return, BUY 
23 June 2020
Price Rp 4200
Target price Rp5,200
June growth Improvement
  • In 1Q020, JSMR’s toll road revenues, both mature and subsidiaries, declined by about 45%, due to the covid-19 outbreak and physical distancing which is now entering a re opening period.  The March - April 2020 period saw a further deterioration to -50%.
  • Mature toll road revenue has dropped 35% for weekends, and 25% for weekdays. While at the subsidiary level toll road revenue has declined 38% for weekends and 30% for weekdays. But there has been an improvement in June weeks 1 and 2 compared to the March – May 2020 period.
  • As the re opening period will allow for some economic activities, we expect the rate of decline of JSMR’s toll road revenues will reduce gradually.

1Q2020FY: Better than expected
  • JSMR recorded IDR 2.73 trillion from toll and other operating revenue, up +8.6% yoy in 1Q2020. The contribution of toll revenue at the subsidiary level was 31.1% or IDR 923 billion in 1Q2020 from IDR 488 in 1Q2019, an increase of 29.7% YoY. The higher toll revenue  at the  subsidiary level is the result of additional new toll roads.
  • EBITDA grew +4.8% yoy to IDR 1.90 trillion, which resulted in a decrease in the EBITDA margin from 71.8% in 1Q2019 to 69.3% in 1Q2020.
  • Net income grew +0.53% yoy to IDR 587.9 billion.
  • We are upgrading our 2020 forecasts as the 1Q2020 result was above our expectations. We now expect 2020F net income of IDR 2.21 trillion, which would mean growth of  +0.2% YoY.

Valuation: TP 5,000, Maintain BUY
  • We update our one year target price for JSMR to  IDR 5,200, offering investors a potential return of 24%. This would also translate into 2021F PE of 15.6x. We recommend BUY.
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Previously

​JSMR May2020
​JSMR Nov2019
August 2019
August 2018
January 18, 2018
PT. Binaartha Sekuritas

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