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INTP

Contact our analyst Eka
Hold, 18% Upside
30th May 2022 
​
Price Rp 10,225
Target price Rp 12075
Higher ASP
  • Domestic cement sales volume grew +4.7% YoY in 1Q2022 with a contraction in bag volume of -0.6% and strong growth of bulk sales volume of +24.0%.
  • INTP’s domestic sales volume contracted -0.8% with bag sales -5.7% and bulk up +20.1% mainly due to a price increase in bag cement because of higher fuel costs from higher coal prices. With another spike of coal prices in 1Q20222, there is another price hike in 2Q2022.
  • In April 2022, domestic sales volume contracted -9.5% due to the national holiday and Eid Al-Fitr celebration. Bag sales contracted -14.2% YoY while bulk sales grew +5.7% YoY.
  • INTP sales also contracted by -24.1% YoY with bag sales down -27.1% and bulk by a lesser -14.4% due to the price hike. The normal INTP leadership price gap has not returned to its previous level yet despite the price increases.
  • Domestic demand is likely to normalize after the holiday, but remain overshadowed by rising costs such as higher coal prices. We maintain our forecast for positive sales volume growth for 2022FY. 

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Margin Depressed
  • Despite a net revenue increase of +3% YoY to IDR 3.56 trillion due to the higher ASP, INTP’s margin continued to be depressed by higher energy costs in 1Q2022.
  • Energy costs rose +53% YoY to IDR 1.42 trillion due to the spike in coal prices. This resulted in a cost of revenue increase of +11% YoY.
  • Gross profit decreased by -13% YoY to IDR 960.4 billion with a  lower GPM of 27% from 36.8% in 4Q2021.
  • After the ASP hike in 1Q2022 to mitigate margin contraction, INTP also raised the ASP in April 2022 by around 5% - 7% to offset higher coal prices.
  • Operating profit decreased -48% YoY to IDR 207 billion with a lower OPM of 5.8%  from 16.7% in 4Q2021.
  • INTP net profit in 1Q2022 decreased -48% YoY to IDR 183 billion. This resulted in a lower NPM of 5.1% from 13.9% in 4Q2021.
  • We revise our 2022F revenue and net profit forecasts to IDR 16.3 trillion and IDR 1.65 trillion which is growth of +10% and -7.6% respectively

Valuation: Downgrade to HOLD with TP 12,075
  • We are now targeting INTP to trade at 25x 2023F PE within a year. Target Price is IDR 12,075 which represents +18% upside. We recommend to HOLD.
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Previously
​INTP Apr2022
​INTP Nov2021
​INTP Aug2021
​INTP May2021
​INTP Mar2021
​INTP Nov2020
​INTP Aug2020
​INTP Jul2020
​INTP Mar2020
​January 2020
​March 2019
November 2018
​April 2018
February 2018
PT. Binaartha Sekuritas

Setiabudi Atrium, Jl. HR Rasuna Said No.62, RT.18/RW.2, Karet Kuningan, Setia Budi, Jakarta Selatan, DKI Jakarta 12920

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