TINS
Contact our analyst Revita
65% upside, BUY
12th May 2023
Current price Rp 975
Target price Rp1610
12th May 2023
Current price Rp 975
Target price Rp1610
1Q23 tin production down -18% YoY
1Q23 tin production down -18% YoYIn 1Q23, TINS production volume fell -18% YoY to 3,970 tons. Sales volume also decreased by -26% YoY to 4,246 tons. Tin ore production volume deceased -8% YoY to 4,139 tons. We maintain our production target despite the 1Q23 results as the company remains optimistic with their 2023 target to grow volume +18% CAGR in the next 2 years. Going forward, we expect higher production volume, in line with company production targets.
1Q23 revenue down -51% YoY
As of 1Q23, TINS ‘ revenue decereased -51% as sales volume was down -26% and the average selling price (ASP ) during 1Q23 was also down -39% YoY to USD 26,573/ton compared to USD 43,667/ton in 1Q22. The weaker ASP was due to weak global demand. Net profit also declined -92% YoY despite a decrease in operating expenses of -9% comapred to 1Q22 and a decrease in finance cosst by -2% YoY. We maintain our revenue traget during 2023-2024 of flat growth. Low-cost tin ore production from offshore mining will continue to be the main focus which will help to improve profit margins despite volatility in tin selling prices and uncertainties over the strength of demand.
Leverage decrease continues
Although TINS’ operation cash flow in 1Q23 decreased by -88% YoY, total interest bearing debt in 1Q23 also decreased by -22% YoY to IDR 2.87 trillion due to a decrease in bank loans which declined by -21.6% YoY in 1Q23 to IDR 1.44 trillion. Bond debt also decreased -56.6% YoY to IDR 806 billion. We expect a continued downward trend of interest expenses in 2023F due to the lower liabilities.
Valuation: 65% upside
As TINS remain optimistic with their 2023 target, we maintain our target price for TINS within one year at IDR. 1,610 / share or trading at 7.02x PER, With 65% upside, our recommendation is maintained as BUY.
1Q23 tin production down -18% YoYIn 1Q23, TINS production volume fell -18% YoY to 3,970 tons. Sales volume also decreased by -26% YoY to 4,246 tons. Tin ore production volume deceased -8% YoY to 4,139 tons. We maintain our production target despite the 1Q23 results as the company remains optimistic with their 2023 target to grow volume +18% CAGR in the next 2 years. Going forward, we expect higher production volume, in line with company production targets.
1Q23 revenue down -51% YoY
As of 1Q23, TINS ‘ revenue decereased -51% as sales volume was down -26% and the average selling price (ASP ) during 1Q23 was also down -39% YoY to USD 26,573/ton compared to USD 43,667/ton in 1Q22. The weaker ASP was due to weak global demand. Net profit also declined -92% YoY despite a decrease in operating expenses of -9% comapred to 1Q22 and a decrease in finance cosst by -2% YoY. We maintain our revenue traget during 2023-2024 of flat growth. Low-cost tin ore production from offshore mining will continue to be the main focus which will help to improve profit margins despite volatility in tin selling prices and uncertainties over the strength of demand.
Leverage decrease continues
Although TINS’ operation cash flow in 1Q23 decreased by -88% YoY, total interest bearing debt in 1Q23 also decreased by -22% YoY to IDR 2.87 trillion due to a decrease in bank loans which declined by -21.6% YoY in 1Q23 to IDR 1.44 trillion. Bond debt also decreased -56.6% YoY to IDR 806 billion. We expect a continued downward trend of interest expenses in 2023F due to the lower liabilities.
Valuation: 65% upside
As TINS remain optimistic with their 2023 target, we maintain our target price for TINS within one year at IDR. 1,610 / share or trading at 7.02x PER, With 65% upside, our recommendation is maintained as BUY.
Previously
| tins_19_march_2018.pdf |
| tins_18_january_2018.pdf |
| tins_7_december_2017.pdf |
| tins_9_october_2017_.pdf |
