TINS
Contact our analyst Revita
28% upside, BUY
5th April 2022
Current price Rp1925
Target price Rp2460
5th April 2022
Current price Rp1925
Target price Rp2460
Production to increase
In 2021, TINS produced 24,670 tons of tin ore, down -38% yoy. 54% came from offshore, while 46% came from onshore mining. Tin metal production was 26,465 tons, down -42% yoy. TINS also recorded a tin metal sales decease to 19,059 tons down -52% yoy. The average selling price increased significantly 89% YoY to USD/ton 32,619 compared to USD/tons 17,215 in 2020. The decline in tin ore production is caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and slower onshore tin mining. In 2022, TINS is targeting production of 35,000 tons or up 42% yoy, boosted by offshore with reduced onshore production as cost of mining offshore is cheaper than onshore. In line with the significantly higher tin selling price, we upgrade our tin price forecast for 2022 to an average USD 35,000/MT, while 2023’s tin price is expected to be lower than the current price. Going forward, TINS has anticipated future volatility in tin prices by adopting lower-cost mining technologies such as Ausmelt which will start commissioning in April 2022 and production in 2H 2022. We expect revenue and profit this year to rise significantly on the back of the higher tin price and lower production costs.
Profit improves
TINS is on track to improve financial health and reduce interest expenses. In 2021, TINS’ plan to de-leverage to reduce interest payments worked, with bank debt reduced to IDR 1,5 trillion compared to IDR 3,8 trillion in 2020. TINS’ bond and ijarah non current portion as of 2021 amounted to IDR. 806 billion compared to IDR.2,093 trillion in 2020. TINS bottom line has improved to a net profit of IDR 1.3 trillion compared to the previous year‘s net loss of -IDR 341 billion. The improvement in the bottom line was caused by lower cost of raw materials (tin ore) down -59% yoy inline with significantly lower tin ore production in 2021. We estimate continued positive profit in 2022F due to lower production costs and a higher ASP.
Valuation: 28% upside
We upgrade our target price for TINS within one year of IDR. 2,460 / share or trading at 6x PER, With 28% upside, our recommendation is BUY.
In 2021, TINS produced 24,670 tons of tin ore, down -38% yoy. 54% came from offshore, while 46% came from onshore mining. Tin metal production was 26,465 tons, down -42% yoy. TINS also recorded a tin metal sales decease to 19,059 tons down -52% yoy. The average selling price increased significantly 89% YoY to USD/ton 32,619 compared to USD/tons 17,215 in 2020. The decline in tin ore production is caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and slower onshore tin mining. In 2022, TINS is targeting production of 35,000 tons or up 42% yoy, boosted by offshore with reduced onshore production as cost of mining offshore is cheaper than onshore. In line with the significantly higher tin selling price, we upgrade our tin price forecast for 2022 to an average USD 35,000/MT, while 2023’s tin price is expected to be lower than the current price. Going forward, TINS has anticipated future volatility in tin prices by adopting lower-cost mining technologies such as Ausmelt which will start commissioning in April 2022 and production in 2H 2022. We expect revenue and profit this year to rise significantly on the back of the higher tin price and lower production costs.
Profit improves
TINS is on track to improve financial health and reduce interest expenses. In 2021, TINS’ plan to de-leverage to reduce interest payments worked, with bank debt reduced to IDR 1,5 trillion compared to IDR 3,8 trillion in 2020. TINS’ bond and ijarah non current portion as of 2021 amounted to IDR. 806 billion compared to IDR.2,093 trillion in 2020. TINS bottom line has improved to a net profit of IDR 1.3 trillion compared to the previous year‘s net loss of -IDR 341 billion. The improvement in the bottom line was caused by lower cost of raw materials (tin ore) down -59% yoy inline with significantly lower tin ore production in 2021. We estimate continued positive profit in 2022F due to lower production costs and a higher ASP.
Valuation: 28% upside
We upgrade our target price for TINS within one year of IDR. 2,460 / share or trading at 6x PER, With 28% upside, our recommendation is BUY.
Previously
| tins_19_march_2018.pdf |
| tins_18_january_2018.pdf |
| tins_7_december_2017.pdf |
| tins_9_october_2017_.pdf |
