ANTM
Contact our analyst Revita
53% upside, Buy
30th March 2023
Current price Rp2090
Target price Rp3190
30th March 2023
Current price Rp2090
Target price Rp3190
Gold sales up 19% in 2022
Although 4Q22 ANTM gold sales volume decreased -27% QoQ to 9,036 Kg, total sales volume during 2022FY increased 19% YoY to 34,967 Kg compared to 29,385 Kg in 2021 FY. During 2022FY ANTM conducted gold exploration activities in Pongkor, West Java and the recovery in domestic economic growth last year also lead to an increase in domestic gold demand. We conservatively estimate gold sales volume in 2023 at 38,784 kg with public interest in gold still high despite current global risk factors. We believe ANTM;s startegy to focus on developing a customer base in the domestic market will increase public awareness of investing in gold..
Maintaining doube digit nickel production growth
ANTM unaudited nickel ore production volume reached 2.41 million wmt, or an increase of 32% QoQ despite declining -11% YoY. The strengthening of nickel ore production led to higher 4Q22 nickle ore sales of 2.2 million wmt or up by 28% QoQ. The growth in 4Q22 production was influenced by a demand recovery and normalization of nickel prices. We expect higher future nickel demand from electric vehicles, and expect nickel production and sales volume to grow 26% YoY in 2023.
Targeting 23% growth of bottom line profit
ANTM profit in 2022 was IDR 3,8 trillion, a 105% YoY increase. This was supported by ANTAM's efforts to optimize the performance of its production and sales of nickel, gold and bauxite-based products amidst a global economic recovery and a positive outlook for base metal and precious metal commodities throughout 2022FY. In the next two years (2023-2024), we estimate ANTM’s net profit will grow by a CAGR average 23% as we expect ANTM to keep production costs low and preserve cash through negotiations with creditors, banks and suppliers. ANTM is also improving internal efficiencies in both business units and the head office.
Valuation: 53% upside
We adjust our valuation based on 2022FY audited results. we have a one year target price of IDR 3,190/share or trading at 15x PER. With 53% upside, we maintain our recommendation to BUY.
Although 4Q22 ANTM gold sales volume decreased -27% QoQ to 9,036 Kg, total sales volume during 2022FY increased 19% YoY to 34,967 Kg compared to 29,385 Kg in 2021 FY. During 2022FY ANTM conducted gold exploration activities in Pongkor, West Java and the recovery in domestic economic growth last year also lead to an increase in domestic gold demand. We conservatively estimate gold sales volume in 2023 at 38,784 kg with public interest in gold still high despite current global risk factors. We believe ANTM;s startegy to focus on developing a customer base in the domestic market will increase public awareness of investing in gold..
Maintaining doube digit nickel production growth
ANTM unaudited nickel ore production volume reached 2.41 million wmt, or an increase of 32% QoQ despite declining -11% YoY. The strengthening of nickel ore production led to higher 4Q22 nickle ore sales of 2.2 million wmt or up by 28% QoQ. The growth in 4Q22 production was influenced by a demand recovery and normalization of nickel prices. We expect higher future nickel demand from electric vehicles, and expect nickel production and sales volume to grow 26% YoY in 2023.
Targeting 23% growth of bottom line profit
ANTM profit in 2022 was IDR 3,8 trillion, a 105% YoY increase. This was supported by ANTAM's efforts to optimize the performance of its production and sales of nickel, gold and bauxite-based products amidst a global economic recovery and a positive outlook for base metal and precious metal commodities throughout 2022FY. In the next two years (2023-2024), we estimate ANTM’s net profit will grow by a CAGR average 23% as we expect ANTM to keep production costs low and preserve cash through negotiations with creditors, banks and suppliers. ANTM is also improving internal efficiencies in both business units and the head office.
Valuation: 53% upside
We adjust our valuation based on 2022FY audited results. we have a one year target price of IDR 3,190/share or trading at 15x PER. With 53% upside, we maintain our recommendation to BUY.
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