ANTM
Contact our analyst Revita
36% upside, Buy
19th January 2023
Current price Rp2280
Target price Rp3100
19th January 2023
Current price Rp2280
Target price Rp3100
Gold sales up 91% YoY in 3Q22
In 3Q22, ANTM gold sales volume increased 81% QoQ to 12,462 Kg. ANTM’s gold sales value was IDR 11.25 trillion or 75% of total 3Q22 net sales. Meanwhile, in 3Q22, ANTM recorded gold production volume of 294 Kg from Pongkor and Cibaliung mines, a decrease of -3.3% QoQ from 2Q22 production volume of 304 Kg. The 3Q22 sales increased by 91% compared to 3Q21. The recovery of economic growth and weaker demand for US dollars as a safe haven led to an increase in domestic gold consumption. In 2022, ANTM focused on developing a customer base in the domestic market in line with increasing public awarness of investing in gold and therefore growing demand. We believe this strategy will continue in 2023 with increased online sales through Tokopedia, Shopee, and TikTok shop in addition to the existing officlal online sales website.
Maintaining production growth
In 3Q22, ANTM’s ferronickel production was 6,106 Tni or down -3% QoQ but sales volume of 7,646 Tni, was an increase of 93% QoQ. ANTM nickle ore production was 1.82 million wmt (wet metrict ton) with sales of 1.713 million wmt which was used as ore feed for ANTM’s ferronickel plant as well as being sold into the domestic market. In 3Q22, ANTM’s bauxite production volume was 461,131 wmt which was used as ore feed for alumina production as well as being sold to 3rd party customers. The bauxite sales volume was 274,252 wmt. ANTM alumina production volume reached 41,982 tons, a 55% increase compared to 27,104 ton in 3Q21. The increase in volume is in line with ANTM’s strategy to optimmize the operations of its Tayan CGA Plant as well as prioritizing alumina marketing through subsidiary PT Indonesia Chemical Alumina. In addition, other strategies are to keep production costs low and preserve cash through negotiations with creditors, banks and suppliers. ANTM is also improving internal efficiencies in both business units and the head office. We believe these will maintain 2023F profit growth following on from the 3Q22 performance.
Valuation: 36% upside
We adjust our valuation based on 3Q22 audited results. Based on EV/EBITDA , we have a one year target price of IDR 3,100/share or trading at 14x EV/EBITDA and PER 23x. With 36 % upside, we maintain our recommendation to BUY.
In 3Q22, ANTM gold sales volume increased 81% QoQ to 12,462 Kg. ANTM’s gold sales value was IDR 11.25 trillion or 75% of total 3Q22 net sales. Meanwhile, in 3Q22, ANTM recorded gold production volume of 294 Kg from Pongkor and Cibaliung mines, a decrease of -3.3% QoQ from 2Q22 production volume of 304 Kg. The 3Q22 sales increased by 91% compared to 3Q21. The recovery of economic growth and weaker demand for US dollars as a safe haven led to an increase in domestic gold consumption. In 2022, ANTM focused on developing a customer base in the domestic market in line with increasing public awarness of investing in gold and therefore growing demand. We believe this strategy will continue in 2023 with increased online sales through Tokopedia, Shopee, and TikTok shop in addition to the existing officlal online sales website.
Maintaining production growth
In 3Q22, ANTM’s ferronickel production was 6,106 Tni or down -3% QoQ but sales volume of 7,646 Tni, was an increase of 93% QoQ. ANTM nickle ore production was 1.82 million wmt (wet metrict ton) with sales of 1.713 million wmt which was used as ore feed for ANTM’s ferronickel plant as well as being sold into the domestic market. In 3Q22, ANTM’s bauxite production volume was 461,131 wmt which was used as ore feed for alumina production as well as being sold to 3rd party customers. The bauxite sales volume was 274,252 wmt. ANTM alumina production volume reached 41,982 tons, a 55% increase compared to 27,104 ton in 3Q21. The increase in volume is in line with ANTM’s strategy to optimmize the operations of its Tayan CGA Plant as well as prioritizing alumina marketing through subsidiary PT Indonesia Chemical Alumina. In addition, other strategies are to keep production costs low and preserve cash through negotiations with creditors, banks and suppliers. ANTM is also improving internal efficiencies in both business units and the head office. We believe these will maintain 2023F profit growth following on from the 3Q22 performance.
Valuation: 36% upside
We adjust our valuation based on 3Q22 audited results. Based on EV/EBITDA , we have a one year target price of IDR 3,100/share or trading at 14x EV/EBITDA and PER 23x. With 36 % upside, we maintain our recommendation to BUY.
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