ANTM
Contact our analyst Revita
76% upside, Buy
6th July 2022
Current price Rp1720
Target price Rp3030
6th July 2022
Current price Rp1720
Target price Rp3030
Gold sales 60% of total
In 1Q22, ANTM gold sales volume decreased -11% YoY to 6,575 Kg. ANTM’s gold sales value was IDR 5.88 trillion or 60% of total 1Q22 net sales. Meanwhile, in 1Q22, ANTM recorded gold production volume of 370 Kg from Pongkor and Cibaliung mines, an increase of 28% YoY from 1Q21 production volume of 290 Kg. In 1Q22, Gold selling prices increased 0.6% YoY to IDR 894,485/kg. We estimate that this year gold prices will remain strong due to high market volatility, threats to the US dollar as a safe haven, and Covid-19 cases. In 1Q22, ANTM focused on developing a customer base in the domestic market in line with increasing public awarness of investing in gold and therefore growing demand. To expand beyond existing offline sales, in February 2022 ANTM commenced product sales through online platform Tokopedia, with the opening of “Butik Emas ANTM official”.
Maintaining production growth
In 1Q22, ANTM’s ferronickel production was 5,681 Tni with sales volume of 5,660 Tni, an increase of 1% YoY. ANTM nickle ore production was 2.92 million wmt (wet metrict ton) with sales of 2.33 million wmt which was used as ore feed for ANTM’s ferronickel plant as well s being sold into the domestic market. ANTM’s bauxite production volume was 469,322 wmt which was used as ore feed for alumina production as well as being sold to 3rd party customers. The bauxite sales volume was 102,373 wmt. ANTM alumina production volume reached 33,380 tons, a 121% increase compared to 15,315 ton in 1Q21. The increase in volume is in line with ANTM’s strategy to optimmize the operations of its Tayan CGA Plant as well as prioritizing alumina marketing through subsidiary PT Indonesia Chemical Alumina. In addition, other strategies are to keep production costs low, and preserve cash through negotiations with creditors, banks and suppliers. ANTM is also improving internal efficiencies in both business units and the head office. We believe these, will maintain 2022F profit growth following on from the 1Q22 performance.
Valuation: 76% upside
We adjust our valuation based on 1Q22 audited results. Based on EV/EBITDA , we have a one year target price of IDR 3,070/share or trading at 13x EV/EBITDA and PER 22x. With 76% upside, we maintain our recommendation to BUY.
In 1Q22, ANTM gold sales volume decreased -11% YoY to 6,575 Kg. ANTM’s gold sales value was IDR 5.88 trillion or 60% of total 1Q22 net sales. Meanwhile, in 1Q22, ANTM recorded gold production volume of 370 Kg from Pongkor and Cibaliung mines, an increase of 28% YoY from 1Q21 production volume of 290 Kg. In 1Q22, Gold selling prices increased 0.6% YoY to IDR 894,485/kg. We estimate that this year gold prices will remain strong due to high market volatility, threats to the US dollar as a safe haven, and Covid-19 cases. In 1Q22, ANTM focused on developing a customer base in the domestic market in line with increasing public awarness of investing in gold and therefore growing demand. To expand beyond existing offline sales, in February 2022 ANTM commenced product sales through online platform Tokopedia, with the opening of “Butik Emas ANTM official”.
Maintaining production growth
In 1Q22, ANTM’s ferronickel production was 5,681 Tni with sales volume of 5,660 Tni, an increase of 1% YoY. ANTM nickle ore production was 2.92 million wmt (wet metrict ton) with sales of 2.33 million wmt which was used as ore feed for ANTM’s ferronickel plant as well s being sold into the domestic market. ANTM’s bauxite production volume was 469,322 wmt which was used as ore feed for alumina production as well as being sold to 3rd party customers. The bauxite sales volume was 102,373 wmt. ANTM alumina production volume reached 33,380 tons, a 121% increase compared to 15,315 ton in 1Q21. The increase in volume is in line with ANTM’s strategy to optimmize the operations of its Tayan CGA Plant as well as prioritizing alumina marketing through subsidiary PT Indonesia Chemical Alumina. In addition, other strategies are to keep production costs low, and preserve cash through negotiations with creditors, banks and suppliers. ANTM is also improving internal efficiencies in both business units and the head office. We believe these, will maintain 2022F profit growth following on from the 1Q22 performance.
Valuation: 76% upside
We adjust our valuation based on 1Q22 audited results. Based on EV/EBITDA , we have a one year target price of IDR 3,070/share or trading at 13x EV/EBITDA and PER 22x. With 76% upside, we maintain our recommendation to BUY.
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