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JSMR

Contact our analyst Eka
40% potential return, BUY 
​8th November 2018
Price Rp 5,200
Target price Rp7,260
Subsidiary level increase
  • As of 9M2019, toll revenue increased 11.6% to IDR 7.96 trillion from IDR 7.130 trillion. The Parent level contributed 82% of toll revenue or IDR 6.07 trillion. Meanwhile toll revenue at the subsidiary level increased 41.4% yoy to IDR 1.29 trillion from IDR 913 billion in 9M2018.
  • The contribution of the subsidiaries to toll revenue increased from 14% in 9M2018 to 18% in 9M2019. If JSMR’s deconsolidated subsidiaries (through the RDPT and DINFRA schemes) are also included, the contribution of the subsidiaries to toll revenue increased to 33% or IDR 3.04 trillion.
  • Higher toll road revenue at the Subsidiary level came from new toll road operations and the connection of new toll reads to existing ones.
  • As of 9M2019, toll revenue from Semarang, Surabaya – Mojokerto, Surabaya – Gempol, and Gempol – Pandaan toll roads grew +31.8%, +52.5%, +29.8% and +53.3% respectively, because of the increased connectivity of the Trans Java toll roads.
9M2019 Results: Improved EBITDA
  • JSMR’s EBITDA increased with the higher toll revenue.
  • While operating income fell slightly-0.7% YoY to IDR 4.18 billion in 9M2019 because of the  gain on divestment in 2018.
  • EBITDA grew +16.9% YoY to IDR 5.00 trillion from IDR 4.28 billion in 9M2018, and the EBITDA margin improved to 62.9% from 60.1% in 1H2018.
  • We are expecting a higher EBITDA margin in 2020 as direct costs continue to improve and from increasing toll revenue as Jakarta – Cikampek elevated road starts to operate in January, 2020.
Valuation: TP 7,260, Maintain BUY
  • We upgrade our one year target price for JSMR to  IDR. 7,260, offering investors a potential return of 40%. This would mean the stock trading at 19.7x 2020F PE. We recommend BUY
Download the full report

Previously

August 2019
August 2018
January 18, 2018
PT. Binaartha Sekuritas

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