UNVR
Contact our analyst Eka
29% Upside, BUY
9th February 2021
Price Rp 7,100
Target price Rp 9,170
9th February 2021
Price Rp 7,100
Target price Rp 9,170
Slightly positive sales
- UNVR booked slightly positive revenue growth of +0.1% YoY to IDR 42.97 trillion, or 99.6% from our 2020F expectation.
- In 2020FY, the Home and Personal care (HP) segment contributed the highest at 70% of revenue, while the Foods & Refreshment (FR) segment was 30%.
- For 4Q2020, FR segment grew (rebounded) +9.1% YoY or +11% QOQ after a decline in the 3Q2020 -11% YoY. While the HP segment declined -4.3% YoY or -6% QoQ. For 4Q2020 UNVR revenue slightly decreased -0.4% YoY.
- We see the FR segment rebound in 4Q2020 as a good sign, and so we expect 2021 sales will recover, but we maintain a conservative forecast for 2021F of single digit revenue growth, +3% YoY.
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2020FY Results: As expected
Valuation: BUY TP 9,170 with 29% upside
- UNVR recorded net profit of IDR 7.16 trillion, a slight decrease by -3% YoY from IDR 7.39 trillion in 2019. The net profit achievement was almost as we expected at 96.6% of our forecast. But the profit margin was lower at 16.7% from 17.2% in 2019.
- Higher expenses in 2020 resulted in an operating profit decrease -6.6% YoY to IDR 9.45 trillion and the margin decreased to 22% from 23.6% in 2019
- Gross profit slightly increased +1.9% YoY to IDR 22.46 in 2020 due to efficiencies in raw material and logistic costs. This resulted in a better gross profit margin in 2020 of 52.3% from 51.3% last year.
- As we believe 2021 economic activity will recover, we are expecting net profit will reach IDR 7.39 trillion in 2021F or grow by a single digit +3% YoY.
Valuation: BUY TP 9,170 with 29% upside
- We are targeting UNVR to trade at 45.8x PE within a year. Target Price is IDR 9,170 which represents 29% upside. BUY
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