TLKM May2023

TLKM

Contact our analyst Eka

11th May 2023
BUY
Price Rp 4130
Target price Rp5,600

Revenue Stable

TLKM maintained stable revenue in 1Q2023, with Indihome and Telkomsel continuing to be the engines of growth. TLKM revenue reached IDR 36.01 trillion, up +2.5 YoY but lower -6.1% QoQ.
IndiHome recorded +7.9% YoY or +0.9% QoQ growth to IDR 7.19 trillion in 1Q2023, inline with the increase in IndiHome new subscribers which grew +7% to 9.35 million. The target is to add 1 million more subscribers in 2023.
Data, Internet & IT service revenue increased +5.5% YoY to IDR 19.89 trillion in 1Q2023 boosted by higher cellular data internet revenue, +5.6% YoY in 1Q2023.
As of April 6, 2023, TLKM has signed a conditional spin-off agreement with Telkomsel to reposition Telkom Business into B2B and B2C. TLKM will concentrate on B2B while Telkomsel will defend its dominance in B2C telecommunications. The value of IndiHome which will be spun off by TLKM to Telkomsel is IDR 58.2 trillion.
As we expect demand will continue to grow due to higher data consumption and price increases in 2023, We are targeting TLKM revenues to reach IDR 159 trillion this year.

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1Q2023 Results: Gain from GOTO

After a drop due to losses from GOTO, TLKM’s bottom line continued to improve with +54% QoQ or +5% YoY growth in 1Q2023 to IDR 6.4 trillion. As a result, TLKM margin improved with the NPM reaching 17.8% from 10.9% in 4Q2022.
The unrealized gain from the change in fair value of the investment in GOTO was positive IDR 430 billion in 1Q2023. As of March 2023, GOTO market price was IDR 109 per share.
Operating profit increased +7.7% YoY or +42.3% QoQ to IDR 11.4 trillion with a higher OPM of 31.7%.
Going forward, we expect a merger of IndiHome and Telkomsel will help make capex more efficient. We expect double digit bottom profit growth of +34% this year to IDR 27.8 trillion.

Valuation: Maintain BUY with TP 5,600

We are targeting TLKM to reach IDR 5,600, 36% upside, which is a 20x PE valuation within one year. We maintain our recommendation to BUY.

Previously

TLKM Mar2023