PTBA
Contact our analyst Revita
48% upside, BUY
14th March 2023
Price Rp3930
Target price Rp5820
14th March 2023
Price Rp3930
Target price Rp5820
Targetting 40.8 mn tons coal production
In 2022FY, PTBA’s coal production volume reached 37.10 mn tons or 24% growth YoY, while sales volume increased by 12% YoY to 28.8 mn tons. As of 2022FY, railway volume has reached 28.8 mn tons or +13% YoY from 25.4 mn tons in 2021FY. Sales volume of coal increased 12% YoY to 31.7 mn tons. Production and railway volume optimization has been achieved through digitalization of mine site, port and production equipment. The stripping ratio (SR) during 2022FY increased to 5.7x compared to 4.7x in 2021. In 2022FY. PTBA has also successfully entered new European markets with high sales to Italy, while sales volume to India and South Korea increased 4-fold during the year. PTBA’s export sales volume reached 39% of total sales while domestic was 61% in 2022FY. We estimate 2023F coal production volume of 40.8 mn tons (inline with the company’s guidance), which is an increase of 10% YoY.
Targetting slightly lower profit
PTBA recorded a significantly higher net profit in 2022, up by 59% YoY to IDR 12.6 trillion compared to IDR 7.91 trillion in 2021. Growth was supported by an increase in revenue of 46% YoY to IDR 42.6 trillion. Higher revenue was driven by sales from a higher average selling price, which increased 31% YoY to IDR. 1.3 mn/ton, higher than PTBA’s guidance. Higher revenue also came from relates parties. The strong performance in 2022 has been helped by the global and domestic economic recovery which boosted demand for coal and resulted in higher coal prices. Cash costs increased 31% YoY to IDR 851,100/tons with royalty expenses up by 129% YoY, inline with the rising reference coal price and government regulations. We estimate bottom line profit this year will be slightly lower than last year as we forecast revenue will be impacted by a lower selling price compared to last year.
Valuation: 48% upside potential
We revise our target price for PTBA to IDR 5,820, which is a valuation of 6.5x PER. With 48% upside potential, we maintain our recommendation to BUY.
In 2022FY, PTBA’s coal production volume reached 37.10 mn tons or 24% growth YoY, while sales volume increased by 12% YoY to 28.8 mn tons. As of 2022FY, railway volume has reached 28.8 mn tons or +13% YoY from 25.4 mn tons in 2021FY. Sales volume of coal increased 12% YoY to 31.7 mn tons. Production and railway volume optimization has been achieved through digitalization of mine site, port and production equipment. The stripping ratio (SR) during 2022FY increased to 5.7x compared to 4.7x in 2021. In 2022FY. PTBA has also successfully entered new European markets with high sales to Italy, while sales volume to India and South Korea increased 4-fold during the year. PTBA’s export sales volume reached 39% of total sales while domestic was 61% in 2022FY. We estimate 2023F coal production volume of 40.8 mn tons (inline with the company’s guidance), which is an increase of 10% YoY.
Targetting slightly lower profit
PTBA recorded a significantly higher net profit in 2022, up by 59% YoY to IDR 12.6 trillion compared to IDR 7.91 trillion in 2021. Growth was supported by an increase in revenue of 46% YoY to IDR 42.6 trillion. Higher revenue was driven by sales from a higher average selling price, which increased 31% YoY to IDR. 1.3 mn/ton, higher than PTBA’s guidance. Higher revenue also came from relates parties. The strong performance in 2022 has been helped by the global and domestic economic recovery which boosted demand for coal and resulted in higher coal prices. Cash costs increased 31% YoY to IDR 851,100/tons with royalty expenses up by 129% YoY, inline with the rising reference coal price and government regulations. We estimate bottom line profit this year will be slightly lower than last year as we forecast revenue will be impacted by a lower selling price compared to last year.
Valuation: 48% upside potential
We revise our target price for PTBA to IDR 5,820, which is a valuation of 6.5x PER. With 48% upside potential, we maintain our recommendation to BUY.
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