ITMG
Contact our analyst Revita
Hold
28th November 2023
Price Rp 25,200
Target price Rp 29,180
28th November 2023
Price Rp 25,200
Target price Rp 29,180
In 9M23, Coal production grew by +9.76%YoY
Production increased to 13.5 million tons from 12.3 million tons in 9M22. Notably, 3Q23 production reached 5.3 million tons, a +15.22% YoY increase, or +20.5% QoQ, exceeding the target of 4.8 million tons due to dry weather. The strip ratio in 3Q23 decreased to 11.7x from 12.5x in 2Q23. Coal sales in 3Q23 decreased by -5.26% YoY but remained relatively flat QoQ compared to 2Q23. The ASP in 3Q23 declined -13% QoQ to USD 98.7/ton from USD 113.5/ton in 2Q23, continuing the declining trend since 3Q22. Reflecting normalized global coal prices, ITMG's 3Q23 revenue decreased by -56% YoY. Royalty payments also decreased with 3Q23 prices at USD 14/ton, a -7% QoQ decrease. Based on 9M23 results, we maintain our projection that ITMG's coal production volume for this year will be 16.9 million tons. Looking ahead, we anticipate strong coal demand and increased production volume in 2024.
Production increased to 13.5 million tons from 12.3 million tons in 9M22. Notably, 3Q23 production reached 5.3 million tons, a +15.22% YoY increase, or +20.5% QoQ, exceeding the target of 4.8 million tons due to dry weather. The strip ratio in 3Q23 decreased to 11.7x from 12.5x in 2Q23. Coal sales in 3Q23 decreased by -5.26% YoY but remained relatively flat QoQ compared to 2Q23. The ASP in 3Q23 declined -13% QoQ to USD 98.7/ton from USD 113.5/ton in 2Q23, continuing the declining trend since 3Q22. Reflecting normalized global coal prices, ITMG's 3Q23 revenue decreased by -56% YoY. Royalty payments also decreased with 3Q23 prices at USD 14/ton, a -7% QoQ decrease. Based on 9M23 results, we maintain our projection that ITMG's coal production volume for this year will be 16.9 million tons. Looking ahead, we anticipate strong coal demand and increased production volume in 2024.
Sign up now to trade; what you want, when you want, where you want.
9M23 Profit Down by -55% YoY
Net profit in 9M23 was USD 405.8 million, a -55% YoY decrease from USD 893 million in 9M22. The decrease in bottom-line profit was attributed to a -30% YoY decrease in revenue due to lower coal prices. Excluding royalties, total costs in 3Q23 decreased to USD 60/ton from USD 67/ton in 3Q22 and USD 65/ton in 2Q23, marking a -10.44% YoY or -7% QoQ decrease despite fuel price increases and other macroeconomic uncertainties. We estimate ITMG's bottom-line net profit will decrease by -34% CAGR in 2023-2024F compared to 2022A.
Valuation: 15% upside potential
Based on 9M23 results, our new target price (TP) for ITMG is IDR 29,180, implying shares are valued at 4.06x PER with a 15% potential upside. We change our recommendation to HOLD.
Net profit in 9M23 was USD 405.8 million, a -55% YoY decrease from USD 893 million in 9M22. The decrease in bottom-line profit was attributed to a -30% YoY decrease in revenue due to lower coal prices. Excluding royalties, total costs in 3Q23 decreased to USD 60/ton from USD 67/ton in 3Q22 and USD 65/ton in 2Q23, marking a -10.44% YoY or -7% QoQ decrease despite fuel price increases and other macroeconomic uncertainties. We estimate ITMG's bottom-line net profit will decrease by -34% CAGR in 2023-2024F compared to 2022A.
Valuation: 15% upside potential
Based on 9M23 results, our new target price (TP) for ITMG is IDR 29,180, implying shares are valued at 4.06x PER with a 15% potential upside. We change our recommendation to HOLD.
Previously
