BBCA
Contact our analyst Achmadi
20% upside, Buy
15th May, 2024
Price Rp9,500
Target price Rp11,400
Maintaining Double-Digit Growth
In Q1 2024, BBCA sustained its growth in PATMI by 11.71% YoY, reaching IDR 12.88 trillion, although this was lower than FY23’s growth of 19.40% YoY. The growth was driven by net income from the transaction FVTPL line item, which surged by 77.00% YoY due to realized gains on spot and derivative transactions and from selling financial assets. Additionally, interest income grew by 9.48%, but was offset by a 25.68% increase in interest expenses, keeping the bank-only NIM ratio stable at 5.6% both quarterly and annually. We forecast that BBCA will continue to grow its PATMI by another 12.32% YoY to IDR 54.63 trillion, with the consolidated NIM ratio expected to reach 5.94% due to interest rate hikes in 2024.
Robust Loan Expansion
As of March 2024, BBCA’s consolidated loan portfolio grew robustly by 17.06% YoY to IDR 835.69 trillion. The highest annual growth was in corporate loans at 22.12%, followed by consumer loans at 14.87%, SME loans at 13.46%, and commercial loans at 9.25%. Shariah financing also saw significant growth, increasing by 20.78% YoY. From an economic sector perspective, the mining sector experienced the most substantial growth, surging by 334.46% YoY, followed by electricity, gas, and water, and transportation and warehousing, which grew by 43.02% YoY and 37.53% YoY, respectively. Additionally, BBCA’s sustainable financing grew by 9.1% YoY. We predict that by December 2024, BBCA’s loan portfolio will reach IDR 913.74 trillion, marking a 12.75% YoY increase.
Relatively Small Increase in NPL Ratio
In March 2024, BBCA's bank-only NPL ratio stood at 1.90%, a slight increase of 0.1% YoY but remained stable quarterly. This occurred due to increases in the commercial & SME and consumer segments, which reached 2.23% and 1.59%, respectively. The corporate segment's NPL improved by 18 bps YoY to 1.71%. We forecast that by December 2024, BBCA's bank-only NPL ratio will improve to 1.71%.
CASA Growth Rebounding
As of March 2024, BBCA's CASA ratio was 80.72%, a rise of 42 bps compared to Q4 2023 and a slight decrease of 47 bps annually. This increase was driven by growth in current accounts by 8.94% YoY and 0.25% QoQ, while savings accounts grew by 6.22% YoY and 3.54% QoQ. We predict that by December 2024, BBCA's CASA ratio will reach 81.54%, an increase of 124 bps YoY.
Valuation: 20% Upside, Buy
Based on our DDM valuation, we set a one-year target price of IDR 11,400, implying a valuation of 5.32x PBV and a potential upside of 20%. Consequently, we maintain a Buy.
Previously
