UNVR
Contact our analyst Eka
20% Upside, BUY
7th May 2025
Price Rp 1835
Target price Rp 2200
7th May 2025
Price Rp 1835
Target price Rp 2200
Quarterly Sales Recovery, Volume Still Declining
- UNVR showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with total sales rising +22.6% QoQ to IDR 9.46 trillion, despite a -6.1% YoY decline.
- Domestic sales fell -7% YoY but improved +22% QoQ to IDR 9.14 trillion.
- Export sales increased +13% YoY and surged +58% QoQ to IDR 322.7 billion.
- This quarterly improvement followed the impact of customer stock reductions, improved distribution profitability, better service levels, and price harmonization—key elements of UNVR’s go-to-market transformation strategy.
- Pricing rose +1.3% YoY, while volumes declined -7.8% YoY, a modest improvement from Q3 2024.
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Segment Performance
Strategic Outlook
Valuation: Upgrade to BUY TP IDR 2,200
- Food & Refreshment (FR): Sales declined -0.81% YoY, but rose +25% QoQ to IDR 3.6 trillion. GPM improved to 45% from 44% in Q1 2024.
- Home & Personal Care (HP): Sales declined -9.08% YoY, but grew +21.2% QoQ to IDR 5.85 trillion. GPM improved QoQ to 50%, up from 45% in Q4 2024.
Strategic Outlook
- UNVR remains focused on:
- Resolving operational inefficiencies
- Expanding store coverage (“more stores – better stores”)
- Investing in brand strength and portfolio depth
- Enhancing gross margin through execution of its transformation program
- Management expects more visible improvements by H2 2025 as these initiatives mature.
- UNVR’s bottom line also showed QoQ recovery in Q1 2025:
- Net profit fell -14.6% YoY, but rebounded +245% QoQ to IDR 1.24 trillion, with net profit margin improving to 13.1%.
- Advertising and market research spending rose to 9.2% of revenue, aligned with UNVR’s brand investment strategy.
- Operating profit margin increased to 17.1% QoQ, while
- Gross profit margin rose to 48.2% in Q1 2025, from 44.5% in Q4 2024.
Valuation: Upgrade to BUY TP IDR 2,200
- We continue to expect long-term operational improvements from UNVR’s transformation program. With some risks of volume pressure and transition costs, we upgrade our rating to BUY with a revised target price of IDR 2,200, implying a +20% upside and a 24x forward PE.
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