TLKM Nov2025

TLKM

Contact our analyst Eka

6th November 2025
BUY, 13% upside
Price Rp 3540
Target price Rp4000

Mobile ARPU hike as market repair

Telkom Indonesia (TLKM) reported revenue of IDR 36.6 trillion in Q3-2025, down -0.9% YoY but improving +0.7% QoQ, driven mainly by stronger mobile ARPU. For 9M-2025, revenue declined -2.3% YoY to IDR 109.6 trillion.
The Data, Internet & IT Services segment fell -1.8% YoY but improved +4.8% QoQ to IDR 23.01 trillion, as digital business remained soft while “market repair” efforts—product simplification and yield-focused pricing—supported recovery in mobile performance. Despite a decline in data traffic (-3.0% QoQ to 5,757 PB), mobile ARPU improved to IDR 43,000 (vs IDR 41,000 in Q2-2025) as operators maintained rational pricing. Mobile subscribers slipped -0.5% QoQ to 157.58 million, impacted by churn from starter-pack rationalization.
IndiHome revenue declined -2.6% YoY and -1.6% QoQ to IDR 6.48 trillion amid weak consumer sentiment and affordability challenges. The subscriber base grew +7.5% YoY to 11.54 million, but ARPU dropped -9.4% YoY to IDR 216,700 due to shifting preference to broadband-only packages over bundled IPTV + telephony.
With gradual mobile recovery but continued pressure on fixed broadband, management revised FY25 revenue guidance from flattish to slightly contracting, while maintaining the EBITDA margin target at ~50%.

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Spin Off of TLKM’s fiber assets

TLKM moved forward with its fiber-asset spin-off into PT Telkom Infrastruktur Indonesia (TIF), signing a conditional agreement on 20 October 2025 involving asset transfers totaling IDR 79 trillion.
Phase 1 covers 56% of infrastructure assets valued at IDR 35.78 trillion, pending shareholder approval at the 12 December 2025 EGM, and targeted to complete by 26 January 2026. Phase 2 is planned for completion by 2H-2026.
Transferred assets include 83,000 km of backbone and ~500,000 km of access fiber (FTTx reach). TIF is expected to generate IDR 26 trillion revenue and IDR 9–10 trillion EBITDA. The spin-off aims to sharpen TLKM’s focus on business development, improve asset efficiency, and unlock fiber-network value. TLKM also plans to invite a strategic partner to take a 20–30% stake in TIF.

Q3 2025 Results: Margin contracted

Net profit was IDR 4.84 trillion, down -18.2% YoY and -5.8% QoQ, with NPM contracting to 13.2%. Operating expenses increased +3.9% YoY to IDR 27.3 trillion, driven by higher personnel costs (+4.3% YoY), general & administrative (+6.1% YoY) from higher provisions, and +9.2% depreciation & amortization due to InfraCo-linked asset changes.
Excluding unrealized items, core net income fell -11.3% YoY to IDR 5.5 trillion.

Valuation: Maintain BUY, TP IDR 4,000 (+13% Upside)