TLKM
Contact our analyst Eka
28th August 2025
BUY, 28% upside
Price Rp 3170
Target price Rp4050
BUY, 28% upside
Price Rp 3170
Target price Rp4050
Expecting flattish top line
- Telkom Indonesia (TLKM) reported revenue of IDR 36.36 trillion in Q2-2025, down -4.0% YoY and -0.7% QoQ. For 1H-2025, total revenue declined -3.0% YoY to IDR 73 trillion, reflecting weaker consumer spending and challenging macroeconomic conditions.
- The Data, Internet & IT Services segment fell -9.2% YoY to IDR 21.15 trillion, primarily due to a -7.1% YoY drop in digital business. Despite data traffic rising +20% YoY to 5,937 PB, mobile ARPU declined to IDR 41,200 (vs. IDR 45,000 in Q2-2024), pressured by competition, downtrading, and spending cuts. Mobile subscribers also contracted slightly (-0.9% YoY) to 158.4 million.
- IndiHome remained a bright spot, with revenue up +7.8% YoY to IDR 6.58 trillion. Subscribers grew +10.0% YoY to 10.06 million, though ARPU fell to IDR 216,900 (vs. IDR 240,000 last year).
- Given these trends, management revised its 2025 revenue growth guidance from low single-digit to flattish, while maintaining the EBITDA margin target at 50% (previously 50%–52%).
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Q2 2025 Results: Margin contracted
Valuation: Maintain BUY with TP of IDR 4,050
- Net profit in Q2-2025 was IDR 5.13 trillion, down -10.0% YoY and -11.6% QoQ, with Net Profit Margin (NPM) contracting to 14.1%.
- Operating expenses decreased -4% YoY to IDR 26.9 trillion, aided by lower personnel costs (-26.9% YoY) following a retirement program, and a -16.5% YoY reduction in general & administrative expenses.
- TLKM also booked an unrealized gain of IDR 110 billion from changes in fair value of its GOTO investment. Excluding unrealized items, core net income declined -4.9% YoY to IDR 5.61 trillion.
Valuation: Maintain BUY with TP of IDR 4,050
- We maintain our BUY recommendation with a revised target price of IDR 4,050, representing a +28% upside, based on a 17x forward P/E multiple. Despite near-term weakness in consumer spending and competition, TLKM’s resilient IndiHome growth, data-driven strategy, and margin discipline underpin our positive view.
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