JSMR
Contact our analyst Eka
30% potential Upside, BUY
11th November 2025
Price Rp 3560
Target price Rp4630
11th November 2025
Price Rp 3560
Target price Rp4630
More Tariff Adjustment Ahead inQ4 2025
More toll road to operate in 2026
9M2025 Result: Core Profit Posts Positive growth
Valuation: Maintain BUY with TP 4,630 (+30% Upside)
- Jasa Marga (JSMR) maintained single-digit toll and operating revenue growth in 9M-2025, rising +4.8% YoY to IDR 14.52 trillion. In Q3-2025, revenue increased +6.2% YoY or +2.9% QoQ to IDR 5.04 trillion, supported by tariff adjustments implemented since 2024, the opening of Solo–Yogyakarta toll road sections 1.1 and 1.2A, and the reconsolidation of Gempol–Pandaan following the Dinfra buyback in December 2024.
- JSMR carried out tariff adjustments on nine toll roads in 2024 and five toll roads up to 9M-2025. For 2025, JSMR targets 15 tariff adjustments, with 10 more scheduled to take place in Q4-2025. The absence of tariff changes in Q3 was due to ongoing fulfillment of Minimum Service Standards (SPM), a prerequisite for tariff adjustments.
- Traffic transactions fell -0.38% YoY in 9M-2025, with mature toll roads down -0.8% YoY, while newer toll roads saw +2.0% YoY growth. The decline was partly attributable to the removal of several toll gates following system changes on Medan–Kualanamu–Tebing Tinggi and Solo–Ngawi routes.
- Management maintains FY-2025 targets of 4%–6% toll revenue growth and 65%–67% EBITDA margin, supported by tariff adjustments and traffic normalization.
More toll road to operate in 2026
- JSMR plans to operate three new toll road clusters in 2026: Probolinggo–Banyuwangi (full sections 1–3), Solo–Yogyakarta (sections 1.2B Prambanan–Purwomartani and 2.2B Trihanggo–JC Sleman), and Yogyakarta–Bawen (sections 1 Yogyakarta–SS Banyurejo and 6 SS Ambarawa–JC Bawen). These new segments will enhance JSMR’s integration with the Trans-Java network and are expected to provide additional volume uplift.
- JSMR maintained FY-2025 capex guidance at IDR 10–14 trillion, with IDR 9.09 trillion realized by 9M-2025.
9M2025 Result: Core Profit Posts Positive growth
- JSMR’s Q3-2025 net profit declined -10% YoY to IDR 857.4 billion, bringing 9M-2025 net profit to IDR 2.73 trillion (-17.3% YoY), partly reflecting the absence of a one-off gain booked last year. Excluding this, core profit rose +5% YoY, with a steady 18.8% core net margin, supported by continued deleveraging that lowered interest expense -14.2% YoY at the parent level.
- Operating income rose +6.5% YoY to IDR 7.24 trillion in 9M-2025, with the operating margin improving to 49.7%, reflecting better cost discipline and revenue recovery.
Valuation: Maintain BUY with TP 4,630 (+30% Upside)
- We maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of IDR 4,630, implying 8× 2026F PE and +30% upside. Stable revenue growth, broad tariff roll-out, margin improvements, and continued balance-sheet deleveraging support the outlook.
