JSMR Mar2025

JSMR

Contact our analyst Eka

32% potential Upside, BUY
March 18th 2025
Price Rp 3910
Target price Rp5170

Full impact tariff adjustment in 2024, More Increases Expected in 2025

Jasa Marga (JSMR) reported strong toll and operating revenue growth in FY 2024, rising 20.3% YoY to IDR 18.7 trillion. This was driven by higher traffic volumes, the full impact of tariff adjustments from 2023 and 2024, and the reconsolidation of three Trans Java toll roads.
Traffic transactions increased 0.80% YoY, with mature toll roads contributing 51.05% of total revenue (IDR 10.3 trillion), reflecting a 0.1% YoY increase in traffic volume. Meanwhile, newer toll roads saw 4.5% YoY growth in traffic volume, contributing 48.95% of total revenue (IDR 9.92 trillion), up 16.6% YoY.
JSMR adjusted tariffs for 21 toll roads in 2023 and 9 toll roads in 2024, which had a full impact on revenue in 2024. Additional tariff adjustments are planned for 15 toll roads in 2025, including four toll roads in Q2 2025: Pandaan – Malang, Semarang ABC, Bogor Outer Ring Road, and Kunciran – Serpong.
Management successfully met its 2024 targets and expects toll road revenue to grow by 6%-8% in 2025, with an EBITDA margin of 65%-67%, supported by traffic growth and further tariff adjustments.

New toll road operations in Q2 2025 and JTT Divestment Proceeds

JSMR plans to begin operations for the Probolinggo – Banyuwangi Phase 1 (Probolinggo – Besuki) in Q2 2025, following the opening of Jogja - Solo Toll Road Section 1.1 (Kartasura – Klaten) in September 2024.
For 2025, JSMR has allocated IDR 10-14 trillion in capital expenditure, up from IDR 10 trillion in 2024. The construction of new toll roads may impact land acquisition efficiency, as the company continues to optimize project execution.
Regarding the transaction payments for JSMR’s divestment of PT Jasamarga Transjawa Tol (JTT), the company received IDR 6.72 trillion and IDR 2.5 trillion in September 2024, with the remaining IDR 6.09 trillion received in December 2024. Proceeds were used for debt repayment at the parent level.

2024 Financial Result: tariff adjustment and PMK 72 Impact

JSMR’s net profit declined by -33% YoY to IDR 4.5 trillion in 2024, largely due to the absence of a non-cash gain from the corporate action in 2023, when the RDPT buyback option contributed IDR 4.1 trillion. Additionally, in 2024, JSMR booked a non-cash gain from PMK 72 implementation (IDR 637 billion) and Dinfra PT JPT corporate actions (IDR 197 billion).
However, core profit grew by 36% YoY to IDR 3.72 trillion, with the core net profit margin improving to 19.8%, up from 17.5% in 2023.
JSMR’s weighted average cost of debt (WACD) increased slightly to 6.77%, while maintaining a stable fixed-rate to floating-rate composition of 47% and 53%, respectively in 2025.

Valuation: TP 5,170, Maintain BUY

We set a target price of IDR 5,170, implying a 2025F price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13x and offering a potential upside of 32%. Based on these factors, we maintain our BUY recommendation for JSMR.