JSMR
Contact our analyst Eka
45% potential Upside, BUY
August 4th 2025
Price Rp 3580
Target price Rp5240
August 4th 2025
Price Rp 3580
Target price Rp5240
Maintained Revenue Growth Amid Economic Slowdown
Jogja Solo toll road fully consolidated
Valuation: Maintain BUY with TP 5,240
- Jasa Marga (JSMR) maintained single-digit growth in toll and operating revenues during 1H 2025, increasing +4.1% YoY to IDR 9.48 trillion. In Q2 2025, revenue rose +0.1% YoY or +7.1% QoQ to IDR 4.9 trillion, supported by tariff adjustments implemented in 2024 and 1H 2025.
- JSMR adjusted tariffs on 9 toll roads in 2024 and 5 toll roads in 1H 2025. Looking ahead, 2 more toll roads are scheduled for adjustments in Q3 and 9 toll roads in Q4 2025.
- Traffic transactions rose +2.8% YoY in 1H 2025. Mature toll roads contributed 58.6% of total revenue (IDR 5.15 trillion), with traffic volume slightly down -2.3% YoY. Newer toll roads grew +2.9% YoY in volume and contributed 41.4% of revenue (IDR 3.6 trillion), rising +8.6% YoY.
- JSMR also ran tariff discount programs during long holiday periods in 1H 2025, but these had no significant impact on revenue and were aimed at supporting broader economic activity.
- Amid Indonesia’s economic slowdown, JSMR revised its 2025 performance target:
- Toll revenue growth: 4%–6%
- EBITDA margin: 65%–67%
- These will be supported by traffic growth and ongoing tariff adjustments.
Jogja Solo toll road fully consolidated
- As part of its strategy to strengthen its core asset base, JSMR has taken full control of PT Jasamarga Jogja Solo, previously majority controlled by PT Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk. Although shareholding remains unchanged (JSMR: 52.82%, ADHI: 47.18%), JSMR now assumes full operational control and will consolidate Jogja-Solo in its financial statements starting Q3 2025.
- For 2025, JSMR has maintained capital expenditure guidance at IDR 10–14 trillion.
- JSMR’s net profit declined -20.3% YoY to IDR 1.87 trillion in 1H 2025, with Q2 profit inching up +1.7% QoQ to IDR 943 billion. The decline was due to a non-cash gain booked in 2024 from PMK 72 implementation (IDR 637 billion).
- Excluding this, core profit increased +17% YoY, with the core net profit margin improving to 19.7%, up from 17.5% in 1H 2024. The improvement was driven by lower interest expenses, down -20.4% YoY, due to deleveraging at the parent company level.
Valuation: Maintain BUY with TP 5,240
- We maintain our BUY recommendation on JSMR with a target price of IDR 5,240, implying an 8x 2026F PE and offering +45% upside. Stable revenue, improved margins, and a strong deleveraging strategy support this outlook.
