JPFA
Contact our analyst Eka
Buy, 19% upside.
23rd September 2025
Price Rp 1960
Target price Rp 2330
23rd September 2025
Price Rp 1960
Target price Rp 2330
Lower ASP amid market oversupply
- JPFA’s total sales fell -4.2% YoY and -8.3% QoQ to IDR 13.15 trillion in Q2-2025, pressured by oversupply and weaker post-Ramadhan demand. In 1H-2025, sales edged down -0.6% YoY to IDR 27.48 trillion.
- Commercial farming: Sales dropped -10.6% YoY to IDR 5.25 trillion, as live bird ASP fell -19.9% YoY, despite a +12.3% YoY volume increase. Segment margin narrowed to 5.6% (Q2-2024: 6.6%).
- Feed: Sales volume rose +12.3% YoY, while ASP fell -10% YoY. Corn prices rose to IDR 6,635/kg in September 2025 (Apr: 6,175), while soybeans stayed flat but were -4.9% YoY lower at IDR 10,737/kg. Segment margin improved to 22.7% (vs. 20.2%).
- Poultry processing & consumer products: Sales climbed +15.2% YoY to IDR 2.43 trillion, but margin weakened to 3.2% (vs. 5.8%).
- DOC: Revenue fell -17.5% YoY to IDR 727 billion, as ASP plunged -29.6%, despite +5.8% YoY volume growth. Margin turned negative (-1.8%).
- Aquaculture: Sales slipped slightly -0.2% YoY to IDR 1.16 trillion, with margin strengthening to 10.8% (vs. 7.5%).
- Looking ahead, live bird and DOC prices have improved since July–August 2025. With seasonal demand recovery, margins and top-line growth are expected to rebound in Q3-2025 and 2H-2025.
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Q2 2025 Result: Margin pressure
Valuation: Maintain BUY, TP IDR2,330 (+19% Upside)
- Net income fell -4.2% YoY to IDR 556 billion, with NPM down to 4.2%.
- Cost of sales decreased -2.5% YoY to IDR 10.5 trillion
- Gross profit dropped -10.4% YoY to IDR 2.88 trillion, though margin improved to 19.7% (vs. Q1-2025).
- Operating profit contracted -34.7% YoY to IDR 996 billion, margin at 7.6%.
- We forecast FY-2025 net income of IDR 3.26 trillion, supported by price recovery and stronger seasonal demand in 2H-2025.
Valuation: Maintain BUY, TP IDR2,330 (+19% Upside)
- Using a DCF model (WACC 9.7%), we set a target price of IDR 2,330, implying a 19% upside and 7x PE (2026F). We maintain our BUY recommendation.
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