INTP
Contact our analyst Eka
BUY, 21% Upside
26th November 2025
Price Rp 6,600
Target price Rp 8,500
26th November 2025
Price Rp 6,600
Target price Rp 8,500
Lower October cement sales volume
- Domestic cement demand declined -3.8% YoY to 6.08 million tons in October 2025, despite a slight improvement in Java’s bag cement segment (+0.5%). Demand outside Java weakened by -2.1% YoY, while bulk cement sales contracted more sharply, falling -8.7% YoY in Java and -13.2% YoY outside Java. The weakness reflects softer construction activity and the early onset of the rainy season — notable as October is historically the peak volume month. Year-to-date (Jan–Oct), domestic cement sales remain down -3.2% YoY at 50.68 million tons, highlighting persistent pressure from weak purchasing power and slower infrastructure execution.
- INTP’s cement sales volume in October declined -7.7% YoY, driven by weaker bulk cement (-16.3%) and softer bag cement (-3.4%). The decline was partly due to management’s decision to raise prices on INTP’s fighting brands ahead of the typical Q4 peak season. As a result, market share edged down to 29.1% from 29.6% a year earlier. For 9M2025, INTP’s total sales volume fell -2.0% YoY to 14.4 million tons, while Q3 volume reached 5.78 million tons (-1.4% YoY).
- Management has revised its 2025 volume outlook from flattish to a -2% to -3% contraction, reflecting weaker demand and delayed project execution. Looking ahead, INTP targets +1% to +4% volume growth in 2026, supported by increased Ministry of Public Works spending, the three-million-housing program, extended VAT incentives on residential purchases, and renewed infrastructure activity.
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Q3 2025 Results: Margin Improved Quarterly
Valuation:
- Revenue increased +20% QoQ to IDR 4.88 trillion, supported by a sharp +32.7% QoQ rise in sales volume to 5.79 million tons, though still down -6% YoY. Margin improvement continued, driven by higher utilization, better operational efficiency, and increased financial income.
- Net profit surged +100% QoQ but remained -8.5% YoY at IDR 568.3 billion, lifting NPM to 11.6% (from 7.0% in Q2-2025). Gross profit rose +39.3% QoQ to IDR 1.7 trillion, with gross margin expanding to 34.9%. Cost of revenue declined -6.8% YoY, supported by lower raw material costs (-4%) and reduced fuel and power expenses (-6.8%). The Grobogan plant continued to deliver cost efficiencies, reducing delivery and logistics costs by -5% YoY. Overall, INTP’s margin performance outpaced peer averages.
Valuation:
- We maintain our BUY recommendation on INTP with a target price of IDR 8,500, implying 22% upside, based on a 2026F P/E of 17x. While volume recovery remains gradual, improving margins and disciplined pricing support earnings resilience ahead of a demand rebound in 2026.
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