ICBP Nov2025

ICBP

Contact our analyst Eka

Buy, 25% upside
14th November 2025
Price Rp 8,475
Target price Rp 10,600

Higher cooking oil and potato price

ICBP booked modest sales growth of +0.8% YoY and +7.2% QoQ in Q3-2025, reaching IDR 18.6 trillion, although demand remained soft. For 9M-2025, sales rose +1.4% YoY to IDR 56.26 trillion. Domestic sales contributed 69.37%, slightly lower than last year but still dominant at IDR 39.03 trillion. Export revenue increased +2.8% YoY in 9M-2025, though Q3 showed a -0.9% contraction due to weaker demand in Europe, Australia, and the US, partly offset by stronger shipments to the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
The noodle segment posted flat revenue of IDR 14.04 trillion in Q3-2025. For 9M-2025, revenue grew +1.7% YoY to IDR 42.02 trillion, supported by +4% volume growth. Segment EBIT margin improved to 25% in Q3 (from 23.1%), although the 9M margin remained lower at 24.8% (vs. 25.8%) due to higher cooking oil costs.
Dairy sales rebounded, growing +9% YoY and +11% QoQ to IDR 2.4 trillion in Q3-2025 after two quarters of contraction. For 9M-2025, dairy revenue increased +0.8% YoY to IDR 7.29 trillion, supported by +2% volume growth, particularly from liquid milk products across both domestic and export markets. Segment EBIT margin improved to 8% (vs. 5.7%).
Food seasonings recorded stable performance, with Q3-2025 revenue rising +3% YoY to IDR 1.06 trillion, and +5.5% YoY to IDR 3.48 trillion over 9M-2025. EBIT margin improved to 14.9% (vs. 11.4%) driven by selective price increases, softer raw material costs, and +1% volume growth.
Snack foods saw +5% QoQ growth but declined -2% YoY to IDR 1.18 trillion in Q3-2025. For 9M-2025 revenue rose +1.6% YoY to IDR 3.52 trillion, supported by +1% volume growth across most categories. EBIT margin fell to 5.3% (from 11.8%) due to higher cooking oil and potato prices.
Beverages contracted -16% YoY in Q3 to IDR 358 billion, with 9M-2025 revenue down -13.5% YoY to IDR 1.09 trillion, reflecting -9% volume decline amid weaker consumer demand. Segment EBIT margin slipped to 13.5% (vs. 15.4%).
Nutrition and special foods declined -18% YoY to IDR 308 billion in Q3-2025, and -7% YoY to IDR 953 billion for 9M-2025, with volume down -4%. Despite this, EBIT margin improved to 11.5% (vs. 9.8%) due to enhanced product mix.
Looking ahead, management revised its FY-2025 top-line outlook to low single-digit growth due to continued soft demand. Higher cooking oil and potato prices will pressure margins, although ICBP’s pricing power historically allows partial pass-through over time.

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Q3 2025 Results: Top-line margin improved

ICBP’s Q3-2025 net profit declined -66% YoY to IDR 1.57 trillion, driven by an unrealized forex loss of IDR 1.2 trillion, compared to a gain in Q3-2024. Core profit fell -3.5% YoY to IDR 2.32 trillion.
Gross profit increased +1.8% YoY and +16.4% QoQ to IDR 6.78 trillion, with GPM improving to 36.3% (from 36%), supported by cost control. COGS rose only +0.2% YoY, reflecting -6.4% YoY lower raw material costs and +2.5% YoY higher production expenses.
Operating profit surged +37.5% YoY and +28.4% QoQ to IDR 4.26 trillion, with OPM expanding to 22.9% (from 16.7% in Q3-2024), signaling improved operating leverage and disciplined expense management.

Valuation: Maintained Buy with TP IDR 10,600

We maintain our BUY recommendation on ICBP with a target price of IDR 10,600, implying +25% upside and based on 11× forward PE. The outlook is supported by solid noodle volume trends, selective category recovery, and improving margins driven by tighter cost control.

Previously