ICBP Jul2025

ICBP

Contact our analyst Eka

Buy, 38% upside
2nd July 2025
Price Rp 10,625
Target price Rp 14,640

Fully impact of noodle ASP hike Expected in Q2 2025

ICBP recorded modest +1.3% YoY sales growth in Q1 2025, reaching IDR 20.18 trillion, supported by volume growth in noodles, snack food, and nutrition & special foods.
Domestic sales remained dominant, contributing 72.6% of total sales or IDR 14.65 trillion. Exports to the Middle East and Africa rose +6% YoY to IDR 4.2 trillion.
Sales to Other Asia grew +16.6% YoY, while Other Regions declined -15.6% YoY.
The noodle segment posted +1.6% YoY revenue growth to IDR 14.9 trillion, with +4% YoY volume growth (13% overseas, 1% domestic, boosted by the Lebaran season).However, the EBIT margin for noodles fell to 25.8%, down from 27.8% in Q1 2024, mainly due to higher CPO costs. The February 2025 ASP hike in noodles was only partially reflected in Q1 margins — the full margin impact is expected in Q2 2025.
In the dairy segment, sales declined -1.6% YoY (though up +12.4% QoQ) to IDR 2.7 trillion, driven by a -3% volume drop amid tight competition. EBIT margin fell to 10.7%, from 13.1% last year.
Food seasonings grew +5.4% YoY to IDR 1.37 trillion, despite a -1% volume decline, while EBIT margin improved to 14.3% (vs. 11.7%).
The beverage segment declined sharply -12.7% YoY and -7.8% QoQ to IDR 372 billion, with volume falling -8% YoY. EBIT margin dropped to 13.6%, down from 16.5%.
Nutrition and special foods rose +7.7% YoY to IDR 361 billion, with +3% volume growth and an EBIT margin of 10.4%.
Snack food sales increased +3.8% YoY to IDR 1.2 trillion, with volume up +1%, though EBIT margin slipped to 3.6%.
Looking ahead, we expect stronger Q2 2025 sales due to seasonal demand and the full benefit of the noodle ASP hike.

Trade what you want (exciting shares like ICBP) when you want & wherever you are. Simply sign up for our Binaartha Online Trading
⬇️ here.⬇️

Open an account

Q1 2025 Results: Strong bottom line Recovery

ICBP’s net profit reached IDR 2.66 trillion, up +13% YoY, rebounding from a Q4 2024 loss due to impairment charges.
Core profit rose +29% QoQ, but was down -5.2% YoY to IDR 3.07 trillion, aided by a foreign exchange gain of IDR 640 billion (+1,151% YoY).
Gross profit was IDR 7.29 trillion, down -4% YoY but up +16.7% QoQ, with GPM at 36.1%.This reflects a +4.6% YoY and +18.7% QoQ increase in COGS, driven by +12.3% YoY higher raw material costs.
Operating profit rose +4.8% YoY and +19.1% QoQ to IDR 5.15 trillion, with OPM at 25.5%.

Valuation: Maintained Buy with TP to 14,640

We maintain our BUY rating on ICBP with a target price of IDR 14,640, reflecting +38% upside based on a 20x PE forward valuation. Solid volume growth, margin recovery, and well-timed ASP adjustments support our positive outlook.

Previously