ICBP Apr2025

ICBP

Contact our analyst Eka

Buy, 33% upside
28th April 2025
Price Rp 11,000
Target price Rp 14,640

Higher Sales Volume Across All Business Segments
ICBP posted +7% YoY sales growth in 2024, reaching IDR 72.6 trillion, driven by volume expansion across all business segments. In Q4 2024, sales grew +3.1% YoY to IDR 17.1 trillion.

Domestic sales remained the main contributor at 68.9% of total sales, rising +5.04% YoY to IDR 50.02 trillion. Sales to the Middle East and Africa increased +7.4% YoY to IDR 17.35 trillion.
Other Asia saw a strong increase of +32% YoY to IDR 2.09 trillion, while other regions grew +22.4% YoY to IDR 3.1 trillion.

All business lines recorded positive growth:

Noodle sales rose +1.8% YoY to IDR 12.5 trillion, with +8% YoY volume growth—10% overseas and 6% domestic—driven by new variant launches in 2024. The segment’s EBIT margin reached 26% in Q4 2024, and an ASP hike was implemented in Q1 2025.
Dairy sales grew +4.8% YoY and +9.6% QoQ in Q4 2024 to IDR 2.4 trillion, supported by a +7% volume increase in 2024, led by sweetened condensed milk and liquid milk. The EBIT margin declined to 9.7% in Q4 2024 from 10.5% in Q4 2023.
Food seasoning sales grew +21.7% YoY to IDR 998 billion, with +15% volume growth, though the EBIT margin fell to 6.8% QoQ.
Beverage sales decreased slightly by -0.2% YoY and -5.5% QoQ to IDR 404 billion, but volume rose +4% YoY. The EBIT margin increased to 22.5% from 15.3%.
Nutrition and special foods grew +1.2% YoY to IDR 333 billion, maintaining an EBIT margin of 7.2%.
Snack food sales rose +5.6% YoY to IDR 1.07 trillion, with EBIT margin increasing to 9.8% YoY.For 2025F, ICBP targets top-line growth of 7%–9% and maintains an EBIT margin of 20%–22%, supported by volume growth and stable demand.

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Q4 2024 Results: Margin Recovery and Core Strength

Full-year 2024 net profit reached IDR 7.08 trillion (+1.3% YoY).
Core profit rose +12.3% YoY to IDR 10.4 trillion, driven by a 40% YoY decline in net losses from associates and joint ventures.
In Q4 2024, ICBP booked a net loss of IDR 1.07 trillion, primarily due to a forex loss and impairment charge totaling IDR 1.57 trillion (vs. forex gain of IDR 391 billion in Q4 2023).
However, core profit remained strong at IDR 2.38 trillion.
Gross profit in 2024 rose +7% YoY to IDR 26.8 trillion, with a flat GPM of 37% due to a +6.8% YoY increase in COGS. In Q4 2024, gross profit declined -4.2% YoY and -6.2% QoQ, but GPM improved to 36.5% on the back of an -8.4% QoQ drop in cost of sales, helped by -18% QoQ decline in raw material costs.
Operating profit in Q4 2024 rose +23.8% YoY and +39.4% QoQ to IDR 4.32 trillion, with the operating profit margin increasing to 25.3%, supported by a -21.1% YoY and -32.4% QoQ drop in advertising expenses.
Capex for 2025 is set at IDR 5.5 trillion, allocated for new domestic noodle plant construction and expansion of snack food production capacity.

Valuation: Buy with TP to 14,640

We maintain a BUY recommendation on ICBP, with a target price of IDR 14,640, representing a +33% upside based on a 20x PE valuation within one year. Strong volume growth, margin recovery, and strategic ASP adjustments continue to support our positive view.

Previously