Global Market Update

• Japan's trade deficit narrowed sharply to JPY 115.85 billion in April 2025, driven by a modest export rise and a smaller-than-expected drop in imports. While the deficit missed forecasts for a surplus, government support measures helped cushion domestic demand amid global trade headwinds.
  
• UK inflation rose to 3.5% in April 2025, the highest since January 2024, driven by higher energy costs due to the Ofgem price cap hike and new taxes on electric vehicles. Housing, transport, and food prices also rose, while clothing prices fell due to more discounts.
  
• Singapore’s economy grew 3.9% YoY in Q1 2025, above expectations but slower than the previous quarter. Growth was led by manufacturing, wholesale trade, and finance, partly due to pre-emptive activity ahead of US tariff hikes. However, quarterly GDP fell 0.6%, and weak hotel performance weighed on services. The government cut its 2025 growth forecast to 0%–2% amid rising near-term risks.
  

            Sources: Ministry of Finance-Japan, Office for National Statistic – UK, and Statistics Singapore.



Domestic Market Update

• On May 21st, 2025, the Indonesia Government Bond 10 Years Yield closed at 6.8645%.
  
• Bank Indonesia cut its benchmark rate to 5.5% in May 2025 to support growth and keep inflation stable within target.
  
• Credit growth in April 2025 slowed to 8.88% year-on-year from 9.16% in March. On the supply side, banks still showed strong interest in lending, especially to the agriculture, electricity-gas-water (LGA), and social services sectors
  

            Sources: Bank Indonesia and PHEI.




Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.8537% - 6.9922% for Today. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0105, FR0089, FR0103, FR0062, PBS038, PBS033, PBS034, ORI023T6, ORI025T6 and ORI024T6.

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