Global Market Update
Sources: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Eurostat, Trading Economics, and Bloomberg.
Domestic Market Update
Sources: Bank Indonesia, PEFINDO, PHEI and Bloomberg.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.8565% - 6.9951% for Today. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0105, FR0089, FR0092, FR0103, PBS038, PBS033, PBS034, ORI023T6, ORI026T6 and ORI025T6.
- The Fed kept interest rates at 4.25%-4.5% in March 2025, continuing the pause in rate cuts that started in January. This decision was expected. Policymakers see more economic uncertainty but still plan to cut rates by 50-bps this year, the same as their December forecast.
- The Bank of Japan kept its interest rate at 0.5% in March, its highest since 2008, to assess global risks and Japan’s fragile recovery. While the economy showed moderate growth, exports and output remained flat, and inflation stayed between 3.0%-3.5%, driven by rising service prices.
- Euro Area inflation eased to 2.3% YoY in February 2025, down from 2.5% in January and below the initial 2.4% estimate, though still above the ECB's 2% target. Price growth slowed for services (3.7%) and energy (0.2%), while unprocessed food (3.0%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.6%) saw increases. Core inflation dropped to 2.6%, its lowest since January 2022.
Sources: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Eurostat, Trading Economics, and Bloomberg.
Domestic Market Update
- On March 19th, 2025, the Indonesia Government Bond 10 Years Yield closed at 7.0032%.
- Bank Indonesia maintained the BI-Rate at 5.75% to keep inflation within the 2.5±1% target, ensure Rupiah stability, and support economic growth amid global uncertainties. Going forward, BI will assess the potential for rate cuts by monitoring inflation and Rupiah movements.
- PEFINDO reaffirmed BNI’s idAAA rating and its Green Bond I/2022 with a stable outlook. The rating reflects BNI’s critical role to the Indonesian government, strong business position, high profitability, and solid liquidity. However, these strengths are partly offset by intense competition and challenging macroeconomic conditions.
Sources: Bank Indonesia, PEFINDO, PHEI and Bloomberg.
Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.8565% - 6.9951% for Today. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0105, FR0089, FR0092, FR0103, PBS038, PBS033, PBS034, ORI023T6, ORI026T6 and ORI025T6.
