Global Market Update

• On March 17th, 2025, the U.S. market closed at level of 4.2985%.
• China's retail sales grew 4.0% YoY in Jan-Feb 2025, up from 3.7% in December, driven by Spring Festival spending. Most categories saw gains, notably food, cosmetics, sports, and office supplies, while car and beverage sales declined. This marks the strongest growth since October 2024.
• US retail sales rose 0.2% in February 2025, recovering from a 1.2% drop in January but below the 0.6% forecast. Nonstore retailers and health stores led gains, while food services and gas stations saw declines. Core sales, key for GDP, jumped 1%, beating expectations. Yearly growth slowed to 3.1% from 3.9% in January.

            Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China, U.S. Census Bureau, Trading Economics, and Bloomberg.



Domestic Market Update

• On March 17th, 2025, the Indonesia Government Bond 10 Years Yield closed at 6.9521%.
• Indonesia’s external debt remained under control at $427.5 billion in January 2025, growing 5.1% YoY. Government debt rose to $204.8 billion due to strong foreign inflows into bonds, while private debt declined to $194.4 billion (-1.7% YoY), mainly in financial corporations. With 84.7% of total debt being long-term and a lower debt-to-GDP ratio of 30.3%.
• Indonesia's trade surplus jumped to USD 3.12 billion in February 2025, well above expectations, driven by a strong 14.05% export growth—the fastest since January 2023. Imports also rose 2.3%, rebounding from a decline in January. Despite this surge, the full-year 2024 trade surplus narrowed to USD 31.04 billion from USD 36.89 billion in 2023.

            Sources: Bank Indonesia, BPS, PHEI and Bloomberg.




Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.8130% - 6.9506% for Today. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0105, FR0089, FR0103, FR0062, PBS038, PBS033, PBS034, ORI023T6, ORI026T6 and ORI025T6.

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