Global Market Update

• On February 19th, 2025, the U.S. market closed at level of 4.5327%.
  
• UK inflation surged to 3% in January 2025, exceeding forecasts of 2.8%. Key drivers were transport, food, and education, with VAT on private school fees pushing education costs higher. Core inflation rose to 3.7%, in line with expectations. 
  
• Japan's trade deficit widened to JPY 2,758.78 billion in January 2025, exceeding forecasts, as imports surged 16.7% while exports grew only 7.2%. In 2024, the annual trade gap shrank to JPY 5,332.56 billion from JPY 9,522.07 billion in 2023.
  

            Sources: Ministry of Finance – Japan, Office for National Statistics – UK, Trading Economics, and Bloomberg.


Domestic Market Update

• On February 19th, 2025, the Indonesia Government Bond 10 Years Yield closed at 6.8186%.
  
• Bank Indonesia kept the BI-Rate at 5.75% in its February 2025 meeting to maintain inflation within the 2.5±1% target, stabilize the Rupiah amid global uncertainty, and support economic growth. Future rate cuts will depend on inflation, economic outlook, and Rupiah movements.
  
• PEFINDO downgraded PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk (WIKA)’s ratings, lowering its SR Bond II Phase II/2022 Serie A and SR Sukuk Mudharabah II Phase II/2022 Serie A to idD due to the company's failure to meet principal payments of IDR 593.9 billion and IDR 412.9 billion, respectively, due on February 18, 2025. WIKA’s corporate rating was also reduced to idSD, reflecting its weak financial and liquidity position, high risks from past expansions, and ongoing challenges in the construction industry. Other bonds and sukuk remain rated at idCCC.
  

            Sources: Bank Indonesia, PEFINDO, PHEI and Bloomberg.



Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.7548% - 6.8912% for Today. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0105, FR0100, FR0100, PBS038, PBS033, PBS005, ORI023T6, ORI025T6 and ORI024T6

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