Global Market Update

• On February 12th, 2025, the U.S. 10 Years Yield closed at 4.6208%.
• U.S. inflation rose to 3% in January 2025 from 2.9% in December, above forecasts. Monthly, CPI increased 0.5%, driven by a 0.4% rise in shelter costs. Core inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.3% YoY and 0.4% MoM, signaling persistent price pressures.
• Malaysia's retail sales rose 5.4% YoY in December 2024, slowing from 5.8% in November. Growth eased in most sectors, but wholesale trade (5.7% vs 4.7%) and motor vehicle sales (6.9% vs 1.4%) picked up. Monthly, retail sales rebounded 1.5% after a 0.1% dip in November

            Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Statistics-Malaysia, Trading Economics, and Bloomberg.


Domestic Market Update

• On February 12th, 2025, the Indonesia Government Bond 10 Years Yield closed at 6.8981%.
• Retail sales are expected to grow in January 2025, with the Real Sales Index (RSI) reaching 211.3, up 0.4% YoY. Growth is driven by Cultural & Recreational Goods and Information & Communication Equipment. Meanwhile, Spare Parts, Fuel, and Food & Beverages continue to grow but at a slower pace. On a monthly basis, retail sales are projected to contract by 4.8% after a 5.9% increase in December 2024, mainly due to post-holiday demand normalization.
• PEFINDO affirmed idAAA ratings for Bank Mandiri and its bonds, with a stable outlook. The idAA rating was also affirmed for its Subordinated MTN II. The rating reflects strong government support, superior market position, strong capitalization, and liquidity, though competition and economic challenges remain.

            Sources: Bank Indonesia, PEFINDO, PHEI and Bloomberg.



Market Projection
We predict the 10-year Indonesia Government Yield Curve will continue to move within range 6.8530% - 6.9915% for Today. Recommendations: FR0102, FR0089, FR0105, FR0103, FR0062, PBS038, PBS033, PBS005, ORI023T6, ORI025T6 and ORI024T6.

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