BNGA
Contact our analyst Achmadi
26% upside. Buy.
26th May 2026
Price Rp 1,610
Target price IDR 2,030
Cost Discipline Supports Resilient Earnings Performance
In Q1-2026, BNGA maintained resilient profitability, with profit attributable to the parent entity increasing 9.76% QoQ to IDR 1.77 trillion, although still declining 2.21% YoY, mainly due to lower asset yields following the Bank Indonesia rate cut in September 2025. Despite margin pressure, the bank remained disciplined in managing funding costs, with interest expense declining 14.98% YoY, outpacing the 8.59% YoY decline in interest income. As a result, NIM remained relatively stable at 3.83%, compared with 3.88% in Q4-2025, and would have been closer to 4.0% excluding one-off adjustments. Non-interest income continued to support earnings, growing 3.76% YoY, mainly driven by a 16.49% YoY increase in gains from financial instruments measured at FVTPL and a 13.74% YoY increase in fee income. Meanwhile, provision expenses increased 32.88% YoY, reflecting BNGA’s prudent provisioning approach amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. For FY2026, we forecast profit attributable to the parent entity to increase 2.15% YoY to IDR 7.02 trillion, supported by stronger fee-based income to help offset margin pressure. We also expect NIM to remain stable at 3.96%, broadly in line with the normalized level of around 4.0%.
Conservative Loan Growth Reflects Asset Quality Focus
As of March 2026, BNGA recorded modest consolidated loan growth of 2.20% YoY, reflecting management’s conservative strategy of prioritizing asset quality over aggressive balance sheet expansion. All business segments recorded positive growth, with the corporate segment remaining the primary driver, expanding 4.91% YoY, while other segments remained relatively soft. From an ESG perspective, sustainable financing increased 6.32% YoY, accounting for 25.6% of the total loan portfolio. For FY2026, we forecast BNGA’s consolidated loan growth to remain conservative at 1.66% YoY, reflecting continued caution amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Healthy Liquidity Supported by Strong CASA Expansion
BNGA maintained a healthy liquidity position, with its CASA ratio rising to 73.90%, up 650 bps YoY, supported by 12.20% YoY CASA growth as the bank continued strengthening its low-cost funding base. Current accounts grew 15.51% YoY, while savings deposits increased 8.68% YoY, reflecting continued progress in funding mix optimization. Looking ahead, we expect BNGA to maintain a strong liquidity profile, with the CASA ratio projected at 72.19% in FY2026, supported by 3.50% YoY growth in current accounts and 4.23% YoY growth in savings deposits.
Asset Quality Remains Resilient
BNGA maintained strong asset quality in Q1-2026, with gross NPL standing at 1.88%, reflecting disciplined risk management and prudent underwriting. The cost of credit remained around 0.79%, or lower on a net basis after recoveries, indicating manageable credit costs despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. While management remains cautious toward more vulnerable segments such as mortgages and auto loans, overall credit quality remains stable, supported by adequate provisioning and strong coverage ratios. For FY2026, we forecast gross NPL to remain manageable at 1.97%.
Valuation: Buy with 26% Upside
Based on Q1-2026 performance, forward-looking macroeconomic assumptions, and our Multi-Stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM) valuation, we set a 12-month target price of IDR 2,030, implying 26% upside and a valuation of 0.82x PBV. We maintain our BUY recommendation.
In Q1-2026, BNGA maintained resilient profitability, with profit attributable to the parent entity increasing 9.76% QoQ to IDR 1.77 trillion, although still declining 2.21% YoY, mainly due to lower asset yields following the Bank Indonesia rate cut in September 2025. Despite margin pressure, the bank remained disciplined in managing funding costs, with interest expense declining 14.98% YoY, outpacing the 8.59% YoY decline in interest income. As a result, NIM remained relatively stable at 3.83%, compared with 3.88% in Q4-2025, and would have been closer to 4.0% excluding one-off adjustments. Non-interest income continued to support earnings, growing 3.76% YoY, mainly driven by a 16.49% YoY increase in gains from financial instruments measured at FVTPL and a 13.74% YoY increase in fee income. Meanwhile, provision expenses increased 32.88% YoY, reflecting BNGA’s prudent provisioning approach amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. For FY2026, we forecast profit attributable to the parent entity to increase 2.15% YoY to IDR 7.02 trillion, supported by stronger fee-based income to help offset margin pressure. We also expect NIM to remain stable at 3.96%, broadly in line with the normalized level of around 4.0%.
Conservative Loan Growth Reflects Asset Quality Focus
As of March 2026, BNGA recorded modest consolidated loan growth of 2.20% YoY, reflecting management’s conservative strategy of prioritizing asset quality over aggressive balance sheet expansion. All business segments recorded positive growth, with the corporate segment remaining the primary driver, expanding 4.91% YoY, while other segments remained relatively soft. From an ESG perspective, sustainable financing increased 6.32% YoY, accounting for 25.6% of the total loan portfolio. For FY2026, we forecast BNGA’s consolidated loan growth to remain conservative at 1.66% YoY, reflecting continued caution amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Healthy Liquidity Supported by Strong CASA Expansion
BNGA maintained a healthy liquidity position, with its CASA ratio rising to 73.90%, up 650 bps YoY, supported by 12.20% YoY CASA growth as the bank continued strengthening its low-cost funding base. Current accounts grew 15.51% YoY, while savings deposits increased 8.68% YoY, reflecting continued progress in funding mix optimization. Looking ahead, we expect BNGA to maintain a strong liquidity profile, with the CASA ratio projected at 72.19% in FY2026, supported by 3.50% YoY growth in current accounts and 4.23% YoY growth in savings deposits.
Asset Quality Remains Resilient
BNGA maintained strong asset quality in Q1-2026, with gross NPL standing at 1.88%, reflecting disciplined risk management and prudent underwriting. The cost of credit remained around 0.79%, or lower on a net basis after recoveries, indicating manageable credit costs despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. While management remains cautious toward more vulnerable segments such as mortgages and auto loans, overall credit quality remains stable, supported by adequate provisioning and strong coverage ratios. For FY2026, we forecast gross NPL to remain manageable at 1.97%.
Valuation: Buy with 26% Upside
Based on Q1-2026 performance, forward-looking macroeconomic assumptions, and our Multi-Stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM) valuation, we set a 12-month target price of IDR 2,030, implying 26% upside and a valuation of 0.82x PBV. We maintain our BUY recommendation.
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