BNGA
Contact our analyst Achmadi
11.17% upside. Buy.
1st April 2026
Price Rp 1,790
Target price IDR 1,990
Stagnant Earnings Performance
In 2025, BNGA recorded relatively flat earnings, with net profit attributable to the parent entity increasing by only 0.74% YoY to IDR 6.88 trillion. Interest and Sharia income grew 1.84% YoY, while interest and Sharia expenses rose at a slightly faster pace of 2.14% YoY, resulting in a 12 bps YoY decline in NIM to 3.97%, mainly due to lower asset yields following Bank Indonesia’s rate cuts. Despite margin pressure, profitability was supported by a 6.64% YoY decline in provision expenses, partly reflecting the impact of loan recovery reclassification. In addition, non-interest income increased 5.46% YoY, driven by a significant rise in gains from the sale of financial assets, which surged 345.79% YoY. Looking ahead, we forecast BNGA’s net profit attributable to the parent entity to reach IDR 7.06 trillion in 2026, representing 2.72% YoY growth.
Loan Growth Softens Below Target
As of December 2025, BNGA recorded loan growth of 4.48% YoY, below its 5%–7% target, reflecting a cautious lending stance amid current market conditions. The bank prioritized asset quality and return stability, with all segments recording growth, led by corporate loans at 6% YoY. Sustainable loans accounted for 24.9% of total loans (IDR 59.52 trillion), highlighting BNGA’s ESG focus, with MSME loans contributing the largest share at 39.8%. For 2026, we expect loan growth to improve to around 6% YoY, in line with management guidance, supported by prudent lending and continued emphasis on asset quality and efficiency.
Liquidity Remains Strong with CASA Expansion
BNGA’s liquidity position remained healthy, as reflected by its CASA ratio of 70.03%, up 402 bps YoY. This was equivalent to 10.11% YoY CASA growth, driven by the bank’s continued focus on strengthening funding stability and increasing its share of low-cost deposits. Current accounts recorded strong growth of 12.30% YoY, while saving deposits increased by 7.60% YoY. Looking ahead, we forecast BNGA to maintain a healthy CASA profile in 2026, with the ratio projected to reach 72.29%, supported by 9.99% YoY growth in current accounts and 7.22% YoY growth in savings accounts.
Resilient Asset Quality Amid Slight NPL Pressure
BNGA’s asset quality remained well controlled, with the consolidated gross NPL ratio rising slightly by 5 bps YoY to 1.81%, still within the bank’s internal target. Meanwhile, the consolidated SML ratio improved significantly, declining 80 bps YoY to 3.3%, reflecting effective risk management and prudent credit underwriting. We expect asset quality to remain stable, with the gross NPL ratio projected at around 1.82% by end-2026.
Valuation: 11.17% Upside, Buy
Based on FY2025 performance, forward-looking macroeconomic assumptions, and our Multi-Stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we maintain our 12-month target price of IDR 1,990, implying 0.80× PBV and 11.17% upside. We maintain our BUY recommendation.
In 2025, BNGA recorded relatively flat earnings, with net profit attributable to the parent entity increasing by only 0.74% YoY to IDR 6.88 trillion. Interest and Sharia income grew 1.84% YoY, while interest and Sharia expenses rose at a slightly faster pace of 2.14% YoY, resulting in a 12 bps YoY decline in NIM to 3.97%, mainly due to lower asset yields following Bank Indonesia’s rate cuts. Despite margin pressure, profitability was supported by a 6.64% YoY decline in provision expenses, partly reflecting the impact of loan recovery reclassification. In addition, non-interest income increased 5.46% YoY, driven by a significant rise in gains from the sale of financial assets, which surged 345.79% YoY. Looking ahead, we forecast BNGA’s net profit attributable to the parent entity to reach IDR 7.06 trillion in 2026, representing 2.72% YoY growth.
Loan Growth Softens Below Target
As of December 2025, BNGA recorded loan growth of 4.48% YoY, below its 5%–7% target, reflecting a cautious lending stance amid current market conditions. The bank prioritized asset quality and return stability, with all segments recording growth, led by corporate loans at 6% YoY. Sustainable loans accounted for 24.9% of total loans (IDR 59.52 trillion), highlighting BNGA’s ESG focus, with MSME loans contributing the largest share at 39.8%. For 2026, we expect loan growth to improve to around 6% YoY, in line with management guidance, supported by prudent lending and continued emphasis on asset quality and efficiency.
Liquidity Remains Strong with CASA Expansion
BNGA’s liquidity position remained healthy, as reflected by its CASA ratio of 70.03%, up 402 bps YoY. This was equivalent to 10.11% YoY CASA growth, driven by the bank’s continued focus on strengthening funding stability and increasing its share of low-cost deposits. Current accounts recorded strong growth of 12.30% YoY, while saving deposits increased by 7.60% YoY. Looking ahead, we forecast BNGA to maintain a healthy CASA profile in 2026, with the ratio projected to reach 72.29%, supported by 9.99% YoY growth in current accounts and 7.22% YoY growth in savings accounts.
Resilient Asset Quality Amid Slight NPL Pressure
BNGA’s asset quality remained well controlled, with the consolidated gross NPL ratio rising slightly by 5 bps YoY to 1.81%, still within the bank’s internal target. Meanwhile, the consolidated SML ratio improved significantly, declining 80 bps YoY to 3.3%, reflecting effective risk management and prudent credit underwriting. We expect asset quality to remain stable, with the gross NPL ratio projected at around 1.82% by end-2026.
Valuation: 11.17% Upside, Buy
Based on FY2025 performance, forward-looking macroeconomic assumptions, and our Multi-Stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we maintain our 12-month target price of IDR 1,990, implying 0.80× PBV and 11.17% upside. We maintain our BUY recommendation.
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