BMRI
Contact our analyst Achmadi
13.64% UPSIDE, Buy
29th September 2025
Price Rp 4,400
Target Price Rp 5,000
Modest PATMI Growth Amid Rising Interest Expenses
In June 2025, BMRI’s profit attributable to the parent entity fell 7.89% YoY to IDR 24.46 trillion, mainly due to a one-off post-audit adjustment that pushed other operating expenses up 25.23% YoY (10–12% of total OpEx). Interest expenses also rose 26.14% YoY as tight liquidity pushed up deposit costs, causing the consolidated NIM to fall 17 bps YoY to 4.92%. Audit adjustments on mortgage revenue recognition under EIR added further pressure. On the positive side, interest income still grew 12.95% YoY, supported by loan growth, while bond income fell 7.84% YoY as the bank shifted toward higher-yielding assets. We forecast PATMI to decline another 11.63% YoY to IDR 49.30 trillion in FY2025, with NIM expected to stay within the 4.8–5.0% target range at 4.81%.
Solid Loan Expansion Across Segments
As of June 2025, BMRI’s consolidated loans grew 11.02% YoY, exceeding its 10–12% target. Growth was led by the Micro segment (+11.49% YoY, supported by KUR +9.13% YoY), while the Corporate segment rose 9.80% YoY, driven by strong transportation financing (+141% YoY). Sustainable finance also rose 9.47% YoY to IDR 304.5 trillion, with sustainable agriculture contributing 8.3% of total loans (IDR 110.2 trillion). By December 2025, we forecast loan growth of 9.47% YoY, supported by BMRI’s value-chain ecosystem and the government’s IDR 200 trillion SOE bank funding program (BMRI allocated IDR 55 trillion), though clarity on segment allocation is still pending.
Asset Quality Maintained at Healthy Levels
As of June 2025, BMRI’s asset quality remained manageable despite a slight downgrade in both consolidated and bank-only figures. The gross NPL ratio stood at 1.24% (+8 bps YoY) consolidated and 1.08% (+7 bps YoY) bank-only, driven mainly by Micro & Payroll NPL rising 87 bps YoY to 2.60%.This was partially offset by improvements in Commercial and SME NPLs, which declined 23 bps YoY to 1.02% and 0.95%, respectively. We expect the gross NPL ratio to remain healthy by year-end 2025 at 1.27% (consolidated) and 1.11% (bank-only)..
Robust Liquidity Position
BMRI’s liquidity remained ample in 1H25, with total deposits growing 10.75% YoY. Time deposits led the increase (+15.09% YoY), while current accounts and savings grew 9.82% and 8.80% YoY, respectively, bringing the CASA ratio to 74%.This was supported by strong digital adoption — Livin’ transaction volume rose 16% YoY, and KOPRA transaction value grew 20.8% YoY. We forecast total deposits to grow 17.65% YoY by year-end 2025, with CASA expected to reach 74.45%.
Valuation: Buy TP IDR 5,000 (+13.64% Upside)
Based on 1H-2025 performance and a multi-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of IDR 5,000, implying 1.59x PBV and a +13.64% upside.
In June 2025, BMRI’s profit attributable to the parent entity fell 7.89% YoY to IDR 24.46 trillion, mainly due to a one-off post-audit adjustment that pushed other operating expenses up 25.23% YoY (10–12% of total OpEx). Interest expenses also rose 26.14% YoY as tight liquidity pushed up deposit costs, causing the consolidated NIM to fall 17 bps YoY to 4.92%. Audit adjustments on mortgage revenue recognition under EIR added further pressure. On the positive side, interest income still grew 12.95% YoY, supported by loan growth, while bond income fell 7.84% YoY as the bank shifted toward higher-yielding assets. We forecast PATMI to decline another 11.63% YoY to IDR 49.30 trillion in FY2025, with NIM expected to stay within the 4.8–5.0% target range at 4.81%.
Solid Loan Expansion Across Segments
As of June 2025, BMRI’s consolidated loans grew 11.02% YoY, exceeding its 10–12% target. Growth was led by the Micro segment (+11.49% YoY, supported by KUR +9.13% YoY), while the Corporate segment rose 9.80% YoY, driven by strong transportation financing (+141% YoY). Sustainable finance also rose 9.47% YoY to IDR 304.5 trillion, with sustainable agriculture contributing 8.3% of total loans (IDR 110.2 trillion). By December 2025, we forecast loan growth of 9.47% YoY, supported by BMRI’s value-chain ecosystem and the government’s IDR 200 trillion SOE bank funding program (BMRI allocated IDR 55 trillion), though clarity on segment allocation is still pending.
Asset Quality Maintained at Healthy Levels
As of June 2025, BMRI’s asset quality remained manageable despite a slight downgrade in both consolidated and bank-only figures. The gross NPL ratio stood at 1.24% (+8 bps YoY) consolidated and 1.08% (+7 bps YoY) bank-only, driven mainly by Micro & Payroll NPL rising 87 bps YoY to 2.60%.This was partially offset by improvements in Commercial and SME NPLs, which declined 23 bps YoY to 1.02% and 0.95%, respectively. We expect the gross NPL ratio to remain healthy by year-end 2025 at 1.27% (consolidated) and 1.11% (bank-only)..
Robust Liquidity Position
BMRI’s liquidity remained ample in 1H25, with total deposits growing 10.75% YoY. Time deposits led the increase (+15.09% YoY), while current accounts and savings grew 9.82% and 8.80% YoY, respectively, bringing the CASA ratio to 74%.This was supported by strong digital adoption — Livin’ transaction volume rose 16% YoY, and KOPRA transaction value grew 20.8% YoY. We forecast total deposits to grow 17.65% YoY by year-end 2025, with CASA expected to reach 74.45%.
Valuation: Buy TP IDR 5,000 (+13.64% Upside)
Based on 1H-2025 performance and a multi-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of IDR 5,000, implying 1.59x PBV and a +13.64% upside.
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