BMRI
Contact our analyst Achmadi
11.05% UPSIDE, Buy
14th November 2025
Price Rp 4,750
Target Price Rp 5,275
Profitability Declines Continue: BMRI’s PATMI Down 10.2% YoY
In September 2025, BMRI’s profit attributable to owners of the parent (PATMI) continued to weaken, falling 10.20% YoY to IDR 37.73 trillion, marking a deeper contraction than the 7.89% YoY decline recorded in 1H-2025. The decline was driven mainly by a one-off post-audit adjustment of other operating expenses—previously guided by management—which rose 25.28% YoY. Despite this pressure, net interest and sharia income still increased 4.90% YoY, supported by a 10.54% YoY surge in interest and sharia income, partially offsetting the 22.22% YoY rise in interest expenses. Non-interest income also improved, up 7.97% YoY, with FVTPL income posting strong +39.88% YoY growth. Provision expenses rose 9.75% YoY, reflecting BMRI’s continued conservative risk management. We forecast BMRI’s FY2025 PATMI to decline 12.07% YoY to IDR 49.05 trillion.
BMRI’s Loan Growth Exceeds Target
As of September 2025, BMRI recorded consolidated loan growth of 10.98% YoY to IDR 1,764.33 trillion, surpassing its revised 8–10% target range. Growth was led by the Corporate segment, which rose 14.80% YoY, supported by strong financing to the energy and water sector, which expanded 39.3% YoY, adding IDR 17.3 trillion. Sustainable finance also grew 8.70% YoY to IDR 310 trillion, with sustainable agriculture accounting for 8.1% of total loans (IDR 112 trillion). Looking ahead, we expect loan growth to moderate to 8.32% YoY by December 2025, reaching IDR 1,809.49 trillion, in line with internal expectations. Growth should be supported by year-end loan demand, stronger deposit expansion, and the government’s IDR 200 trillion SOE bank funding program, of which BMRI receives IDR 55 trillion targeted for ecosystem value-chain lending.
Asset Quality Remains Manageable Amid Micro Loans Pressure
As of September 2025, BMRI’s asset quality remained under control. The consolidated gross NPL ratio stood at 1.19% (+6 bps YoY, -5 bps QoQ), while the bank-only figure was 1.03% (+6 bps YoY, -5 bps QoQ). The slight YoY increase was due mainly to higher Micro and Payroll NPLs, which rose 112 bps YoY to 2.90%. Meanwhile, the Corporate segment—BMRI’s largest contributor—remained very healthy, with its NPL ratio improving 7 bps YoY to 0.32%. We expect BMRI’s gross NPL ratio to remain manageable by FY2025, reaching 1.12% (consolidated) and 0.96% (bank-only), supported by ongoing improvements in underwriting and portfolio quality.
Robust Deposit Growth, Liquidity Injection Boosts Time Deposits
BMRI’s liquidity position remained solid as of September 2025, with total deposits rising 13.00% YoY, driven primarily by time deposits that grew 32.82% YoY. The sharp increase was supported by the government’s IDR 55 trillion liquidity injection, placed under deposit-on-call in the time-deposit bucket. Current accounts and savings also grew 4.58% YoY and 7.28% YoY, respectively, bringing the CASA ratio to 69.30%. By year-end, we forecast total deposits will increase 15.30% YoY, led by 27.14% YoY growth in time deposits, with the CASA ratio improving to 72.24%.
Valuation: Buy TP IDR 5,275 (+11.05% Upside)
Based on 9M-2025 performance and our multi-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of IDR 5,275, implying 1.68× PBV and offering +11.05% upside.
In September 2025, BMRI’s profit attributable to owners of the parent (PATMI) continued to weaken, falling 10.20% YoY to IDR 37.73 trillion, marking a deeper contraction than the 7.89% YoY decline recorded in 1H-2025. The decline was driven mainly by a one-off post-audit adjustment of other operating expenses—previously guided by management—which rose 25.28% YoY. Despite this pressure, net interest and sharia income still increased 4.90% YoY, supported by a 10.54% YoY surge in interest and sharia income, partially offsetting the 22.22% YoY rise in interest expenses. Non-interest income also improved, up 7.97% YoY, with FVTPL income posting strong +39.88% YoY growth. Provision expenses rose 9.75% YoY, reflecting BMRI’s continued conservative risk management. We forecast BMRI’s FY2025 PATMI to decline 12.07% YoY to IDR 49.05 trillion.
BMRI’s Loan Growth Exceeds Target
As of September 2025, BMRI recorded consolidated loan growth of 10.98% YoY to IDR 1,764.33 trillion, surpassing its revised 8–10% target range. Growth was led by the Corporate segment, which rose 14.80% YoY, supported by strong financing to the energy and water sector, which expanded 39.3% YoY, adding IDR 17.3 trillion. Sustainable finance also grew 8.70% YoY to IDR 310 trillion, with sustainable agriculture accounting for 8.1% of total loans (IDR 112 trillion). Looking ahead, we expect loan growth to moderate to 8.32% YoY by December 2025, reaching IDR 1,809.49 trillion, in line with internal expectations. Growth should be supported by year-end loan demand, stronger deposit expansion, and the government’s IDR 200 trillion SOE bank funding program, of which BMRI receives IDR 55 trillion targeted for ecosystem value-chain lending.
Asset Quality Remains Manageable Amid Micro Loans Pressure
As of September 2025, BMRI’s asset quality remained under control. The consolidated gross NPL ratio stood at 1.19% (+6 bps YoY, -5 bps QoQ), while the bank-only figure was 1.03% (+6 bps YoY, -5 bps QoQ). The slight YoY increase was due mainly to higher Micro and Payroll NPLs, which rose 112 bps YoY to 2.90%. Meanwhile, the Corporate segment—BMRI’s largest contributor—remained very healthy, with its NPL ratio improving 7 bps YoY to 0.32%. We expect BMRI’s gross NPL ratio to remain manageable by FY2025, reaching 1.12% (consolidated) and 0.96% (bank-only), supported by ongoing improvements in underwriting and portfolio quality.
Robust Deposit Growth, Liquidity Injection Boosts Time Deposits
BMRI’s liquidity position remained solid as of September 2025, with total deposits rising 13.00% YoY, driven primarily by time deposits that grew 32.82% YoY. The sharp increase was supported by the government’s IDR 55 trillion liquidity injection, placed under deposit-on-call in the time-deposit bucket. Current accounts and savings also grew 4.58% YoY and 7.28% YoY, respectively, bringing the CASA ratio to 69.30%. By year-end, we forecast total deposits will increase 15.30% YoY, led by 27.14% YoY growth in time deposits, with the CASA ratio improving to 72.24%.
Valuation: Buy TP IDR 5,275 (+11.05% Upside)
Based on 9M-2025 performance and our multi-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of IDR 5,275, implying 1.68× PBV and offering +11.05% upside.
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