BMRI
Contact our analyst Achmadi
22.34% UPSIDE, Buy
16th March 2026
Price Rp 4,700
Target Price Rp 5,750
Limited PATMI Growth amid margin Pressure
In 2025, BMRI’s consolidated Profit After Tax and Minority Interest (PATMI) grew 0.92% YoY to IDR 56.29 trillion. Net Interest Income (NII) increased 4.38% YoY, supported by 8.71% growth in interest income, although interest expenses rose faster at 17.63% YoY, resulting in a 26 bps decline in NIM to 4.89%. Other operating income (excluding insurance) rose 14.52% YoY, mainly driven by a 208.15% increase in recoveries of written-off assets, while operating expenses grew 15.31% YoY, below management’s 25% projection, reflecting efficiency initiatives following post-audit adjustments. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect earnings growth to remain subdued, with PATMI projected to increase 1.68% YoY to IDR 57.24 trillion, mainly due to asset yield pressure that may reduce NIM to around 4.76%, within management’s 4.6%–4.8% guidance range. In addition, BMRI has lost control over BRIS, despite retaining a 51% stake, as control has shifted to Danantara Indonesia. Following the deconsolidation, BMRI will apply the equity method and recognize its share of BRIS profit, which is expected to support 12.25% YoY growth in non-interest income.
Loan Growth Exceeded Target, Moderation Expected in 2026
BMRI exceeded its internal loan growth target in 2025, with consolidated loans rising 13.43% YoY to IDR 1,894.99 trillion (target: 8%–10%). Growth was mainly driven by the corporate segment, which expanded 23.23% YoY, supported by SOE-related financing and government strategic programs. Retail loans grew more modestly at 1.8% YoY, as the bank maintained a prudent stance amid softer economic conditions. Sustainable loans increased 7.85% YoY to IDR 316 trillion, accounting for 15.34% of total loans, with sustainable agriculture representing the largest share at 7.7%. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect loan growth to moderate to 8.46% YoY to IDR 2,055.32 trillion, broadly in line with management guidance of 7%–9%, supported by government spending and an accommodative monetary environment. Our projection also incorporates the deconsolidation of BRIS from BMRI’s consolidated balance sheet starting in 2026.
Asset Quality Remains Healthy
As of December 2025, BMRI’s consolidated gross NPL ratio stood at 1.13%, improving 1 bp YoY. The corporate segment remained the healthiest, with an NPL ratio of 0.28%, while the commercial segment showed the largest improvement, declining 41 bps YoY to 0.69%. In contrast, the micro segment weakened, with its NPL ratio rising 100 bps YoY to 2.94%. Looking ahead, the consolidated gross NPL ratio is projected at around 1.05% by end-2026, reflecting normalization following strong asset quality performance.
Robust Liquidity Supported by Strong Deposit Growth
BMRI’s liquidity remained ample, with customer deposits rising 23.95% YoY, supported by strong time deposit growth of 23.95%, partly driven by government-related liquidity inflows. Current accounts and savings accounts grew 17.23% YoY and 8.38% YoY, respectively. As a result, the CASA ratio stood at 68%, declining 680 bps YoY due to faster growth in time deposits. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect deposit growth to moderate to around 2.65% YoY, mainly reflecting the deconsolidation of BRIS, while the CASA ratio is projected to improve to around 69.23%.
Valuation: 22.34% Upside, Buy
Based on FY2025 performance, forward macroeconomic assumptions, and our refined Multi-Stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we revise our 12-month target price to IDR 5,750, implying 1.71× PBV and 22.34% upside. We maintain our BUY recommendation.
In 2025, BMRI’s consolidated Profit After Tax and Minority Interest (PATMI) grew 0.92% YoY to IDR 56.29 trillion. Net Interest Income (NII) increased 4.38% YoY, supported by 8.71% growth in interest income, although interest expenses rose faster at 17.63% YoY, resulting in a 26 bps decline in NIM to 4.89%. Other operating income (excluding insurance) rose 14.52% YoY, mainly driven by a 208.15% increase in recoveries of written-off assets, while operating expenses grew 15.31% YoY, below management’s 25% projection, reflecting efficiency initiatives following post-audit adjustments. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect earnings growth to remain subdued, with PATMI projected to increase 1.68% YoY to IDR 57.24 trillion, mainly due to asset yield pressure that may reduce NIM to around 4.76%, within management’s 4.6%–4.8% guidance range. In addition, BMRI has lost control over BRIS, despite retaining a 51% stake, as control has shifted to Danantara Indonesia. Following the deconsolidation, BMRI will apply the equity method and recognize its share of BRIS profit, which is expected to support 12.25% YoY growth in non-interest income.
Loan Growth Exceeded Target, Moderation Expected in 2026
BMRI exceeded its internal loan growth target in 2025, with consolidated loans rising 13.43% YoY to IDR 1,894.99 trillion (target: 8%–10%). Growth was mainly driven by the corporate segment, which expanded 23.23% YoY, supported by SOE-related financing and government strategic programs. Retail loans grew more modestly at 1.8% YoY, as the bank maintained a prudent stance amid softer economic conditions. Sustainable loans increased 7.85% YoY to IDR 316 trillion, accounting for 15.34% of total loans, with sustainable agriculture representing the largest share at 7.7%. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect loan growth to moderate to 8.46% YoY to IDR 2,055.32 trillion, broadly in line with management guidance of 7%–9%, supported by government spending and an accommodative monetary environment. Our projection also incorporates the deconsolidation of BRIS from BMRI’s consolidated balance sheet starting in 2026.
Asset Quality Remains Healthy
As of December 2025, BMRI’s consolidated gross NPL ratio stood at 1.13%, improving 1 bp YoY. The corporate segment remained the healthiest, with an NPL ratio of 0.28%, while the commercial segment showed the largest improvement, declining 41 bps YoY to 0.69%. In contrast, the micro segment weakened, with its NPL ratio rising 100 bps YoY to 2.94%. Looking ahead, the consolidated gross NPL ratio is projected at around 1.05% by end-2026, reflecting normalization following strong asset quality performance.
Robust Liquidity Supported by Strong Deposit Growth
BMRI’s liquidity remained ample, with customer deposits rising 23.95% YoY, supported by strong time deposit growth of 23.95%, partly driven by government-related liquidity inflows. Current accounts and savings accounts grew 17.23% YoY and 8.38% YoY, respectively. As a result, the CASA ratio stood at 68%, declining 680 bps YoY due to faster growth in time deposits. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect deposit growth to moderate to around 2.65% YoY, mainly reflecting the deconsolidation of BRIS, while the CASA ratio is projected to improve to around 69.23%.
Valuation: 22.34% Upside, Buy
Based on FY2025 performance, forward macroeconomic assumptions, and our refined Multi-Stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we revise our 12-month target price to IDR 5,750, implying 1.71× PBV and 22.34% upside. We maintain our BUY recommendation.
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