BBTN
13.50% Upside. BUY
21st November 2025
Price Rp1185
Target price Rp1345
Profitability Remains Strong and Steady
In 9M-2025, BBTN recorded a 10.58% YoY increase in net income to IDR 2.30 trillion, reflecting resilient operational performance. This was driven largely by a sharp 44.49% YoY rise in net interest and sharia income to IDR 12.61 trillion, supported by an 18.90% YoY increase in interest and sharia income while interest expenses grew only 2.52% YoY, highlighting effective funding cost control. Other operating income also expanded 9.51% YoY, further underpinning earnings growth. BBTN’s NIM strengthened meaningfully, reaching 3.9% in Q3-2025, up 100 bps YoY, indicating improved asset yields and disciplined pricing. We forecast full-year 2025 net income to reach IDR 3.29 trillion, representing 9.52% YoY growth.
Sustained Lending Growth
As of September 2025, BBTN’s loan and financing portfolio grew 7.01% YoY to IDR 381.03 trillion, in line with management’s guidance of 7–9%. The housing loan segment remained the key driver, rising 6.4% YoY, supported by mortgage loans which expanded 8.0% YoY, while other housing loans grew 6.8% YoY. Construction loans declined 14.3% YoY, reflecting softer developer activity. Non-housing loans recorded stronger expansion of 10.7% YoY, driven by corporate loans which surged 27.5% YoY, and consumer loans which grew 3.6% YoY, partially offset by a 19.6% YoY decline in commercial loans. We expect loan growth to accelerate toward year-end, with the portfolio projected to rise 8.56% YoY to IDR 388.63 trillion in FY2025.
High Deposit Growth Driven by Government Funding
BBTN’s total deposits rose 16.0% YoY to IDR 429.88 trillion as of September 2025, mainly reflecting a 25.03% YoY jump in time deposits following the placement of IDR 25 trillion in government funds as deposit-on-call in mid-September 2025. Excluding this placement, deposits still grew a healthy 9.2% YoY. The heavier weighting toward time deposits led to a decline in the CASA ratio by 380 bps YoY to 47.2%, as current accounts and savings grew more modestly at 7.69% YoY and 5.97% YoY, respectively. We forecast customer deposits to reach IDR 415.72 trillion by year-end, with CASA improving slightly to 49.67% as transactional funding gradually strengthens.
BBTN’s Sharia Business Unit Spins-Off into BSN
On 18 November 2025, BBTN formally approved the spin-off of its Sharia Business Unit into PT Bank Syariah Nasional (BSN), following the merger between BBTN’s SBU and Bank Victoria Syariah, which was acquired in June 2025. Post-merger, BSN’s total assets reached IDR 71.3 trillion, making it the second-largest sharia commercial bank in Indonesia. This strategic move is expected to strengthen BBTN’s sharia ecosystem and support sustainable growth, particularly in housing and property financing, while allowing BBTN to pursue more focused capital allocation and operational efficiency in its core conventional business.
Valuation: BUY TP IDR1,345 (+13.50% Upside)
Based on 9M-2025 performance and our multi-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we maintain our BUY recommendation for BBTN with a target price of IDR 1,345, implying a PBV of 0.53x and offering +13.50% upside.
In 9M-2025, BBTN recorded a 10.58% YoY increase in net income to IDR 2.30 trillion, reflecting resilient operational performance. This was driven largely by a sharp 44.49% YoY rise in net interest and sharia income to IDR 12.61 trillion, supported by an 18.90% YoY increase in interest and sharia income while interest expenses grew only 2.52% YoY, highlighting effective funding cost control. Other operating income also expanded 9.51% YoY, further underpinning earnings growth. BBTN’s NIM strengthened meaningfully, reaching 3.9% in Q3-2025, up 100 bps YoY, indicating improved asset yields and disciplined pricing. We forecast full-year 2025 net income to reach IDR 3.29 trillion, representing 9.52% YoY growth.
Sustained Lending Growth
As of September 2025, BBTN’s loan and financing portfolio grew 7.01% YoY to IDR 381.03 trillion, in line with management’s guidance of 7–9%. The housing loan segment remained the key driver, rising 6.4% YoY, supported by mortgage loans which expanded 8.0% YoY, while other housing loans grew 6.8% YoY. Construction loans declined 14.3% YoY, reflecting softer developer activity. Non-housing loans recorded stronger expansion of 10.7% YoY, driven by corporate loans which surged 27.5% YoY, and consumer loans which grew 3.6% YoY, partially offset by a 19.6% YoY decline in commercial loans. We expect loan growth to accelerate toward year-end, with the portfolio projected to rise 8.56% YoY to IDR 388.63 trillion in FY2025.
High Deposit Growth Driven by Government Funding
BBTN’s total deposits rose 16.0% YoY to IDR 429.88 trillion as of September 2025, mainly reflecting a 25.03% YoY jump in time deposits following the placement of IDR 25 trillion in government funds as deposit-on-call in mid-September 2025. Excluding this placement, deposits still grew a healthy 9.2% YoY. The heavier weighting toward time deposits led to a decline in the CASA ratio by 380 bps YoY to 47.2%, as current accounts and savings grew more modestly at 7.69% YoY and 5.97% YoY, respectively. We forecast customer deposits to reach IDR 415.72 trillion by year-end, with CASA improving slightly to 49.67% as transactional funding gradually strengthens.
BBTN’s Sharia Business Unit Spins-Off into BSN
On 18 November 2025, BBTN formally approved the spin-off of its Sharia Business Unit into PT Bank Syariah Nasional (BSN), following the merger between BBTN’s SBU and Bank Victoria Syariah, which was acquired in June 2025. Post-merger, BSN’s total assets reached IDR 71.3 trillion, making it the second-largest sharia commercial bank in Indonesia. This strategic move is expected to strengthen BBTN’s sharia ecosystem and support sustainable growth, particularly in housing and property financing, while allowing BBTN to pursue more focused capital allocation and operational efficiency in its core conventional business.
Valuation: BUY TP IDR1,345 (+13.50% Upside)
Based on 9M-2025 performance and our multi-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we maintain our BUY recommendation for BBTN with a target price of IDR 1,345, implying a PBV of 0.53x and offering +13.50% upside.
