BBRI
Contact our analyst Achmadi Hangradhika
10.62% UPSIDE, BUY
29th August 2025
Price Rp 4050
Target price Rp 4480
Stagnant Earnings Growth Due to Rising Costs and Provisions
In 1H-2025, BBRI’s profitability faced pressure, with net income attributable to the parent declining 11.53% YoY to IDR 26.28 trillion. Net interest income still grew +2.80% YoY, supported by a higher NIM ratio of 7.80% (+16 bps YoY). However, implementation of PSAK 117: Kontrak Asuransi led to insurance expenses of IDR 4.05 trillion (vs. IDR 2.52 trillion under the previous standard), while provision expenses surged +25.82% YoY as part of strengthened risk management. We forecast BBRI’s FY2025 net income attributable to the parent to decline slightly by -1.89% YoY to IDR 59.02 trillion, with the NIM projected at 7.79%.
Loan Growth Below Guidance, Corporate Segment Key Driver
As of June 2025, consolidated loans grew +5.97% YoY to IDR 1,354.64 trillion, below the 7–9% target. Micro loans declined -3.31% YoY, while corporate loans remained strong at +14.85% YoY. Sustainable financing reached IDR 807.80 trillion, or 64% of the total loan book. The Sustainable Management of Living Natural Resources & Land Use segment led with IDR 61.16 trillion. We project loan growth to recover to +8.62% YoY by year-end, in line with internal targets.
Retail Funding Strategy and Digital Adoption Boost CASA
CASA grew +10.60% YoY as of June 2025, supported by +16.15% growth in Current Accounts and +6.80% growth in Savings Accounts. This reflects a renewed retail funding strategy and robust digital adoptions. Digital channels recorded strong traction: BRImo active users and transaction value rose +4% QoQ and +105% QoQ, respectively, while EDC and QRIS transaction volumes surged +96.8% and +114.8% QoQ. CASA ratio improved to 65.50% (+233 bps YoY). We forecast CASA to reach 66.19% by December 2025.
Asset Quality: Corporate NPL Improves, Micro Weakens
Gross NPL stood at 3.04% (consolidated) in June 2025, slightly up 7 bps QoQ but flat YoY. On a bank-only basis, gross NPL rose to 3.23%, mainly driven by Micro’s NPL at 3.90% (+95 bps YoY). Corporate NPL improved to 1.10% (-147 bps YoY). The consolidated SML ratio improved to 5.15% (-26 bps YoY).We forecast consolidated gross NPL to reach 3.13% and bank-only gross NPL at 3.15% by end-2025.
Valuation: Buy-TP IDR 4,480 (+10.62% Upside)
Using a Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we set a target price of IDR 4,480, implying a 1.99x PBV valuation and offering +10.62% upside potential. We maintain our Buy recommendation.
In 1H-2025, BBRI’s profitability faced pressure, with net income attributable to the parent declining 11.53% YoY to IDR 26.28 trillion. Net interest income still grew +2.80% YoY, supported by a higher NIM ratio of 7.80% (+16 bps YoY). However, implementation of PSAK 117: Kontrak Asuransi led to insurance expenses of IDR 4.05 trillion (vs. IDR 2.52 trillion under the previous standard), while provision expenses surged +25.82% YoY as part of strengthened risk management. We forecast BBRI’s FY2025 net income attributable to the parent to decline slightly by -1.89% YoY to IDR 59.02 trillion, with the NIM projected at 7.79%.
Loan Growth Below Guidance, Corporate Segment Key Driver
As of June 2025, consolidated loans grew +5.97% YoY to IDR 1,354.64 trillion, below the 7–9% target. Micro loans declined -3.31% YoY, while corporate loans remained strong at +14.85% YoY. Sustainable financing reached IDR 807.80 trillion, or 64% of the total loan book. The Sustainable Management of Living Natural Resources & Land Use segment led with IDR 61.16 trillion. We project loan growth to recover to +8.62% YoY by year-end, in line with internal targets.
Retail Funding Strategy and Digital Adoption Boost CASA
CASA grew +10.60% YoY as of June 2025, supported by +16.15% growth in Current Accounts and +6.80% growth in Savings Accounts. This reflects a renewed retail funding strategy and robust digital adoptions. Digital channels recorded strong traction: BRImo active users and transaction value rose +4% QoQ and +105% QoQ, respectively, while EDC and QRIS transaction volumes surged +96.8% and +114.8% QoQ. CASA ratio improved to 65.50% (+233 bps YoY). We forecast CASA to reach 66.19% by December 2025.
Asset Quality: Corporate NPL Improves, Micro Weakens
Gross NPL stood at 3.04% (consolidated) in June 2025, slightly up 7 bps QoQ but flat YoY. On a bank-only basis, gross NPL rose to 3.23%, mainly driven by Micro’s NPL at 3.90% (+95 bps YoY). Corporate NPL improved to 1.10% (-147 bps YoY). The consolidated SML ratio improved to 5.15% (-26 bps YoY).We forecast consolidated gross NPL to reach 3.13% and bank-only gross NPL at 3.15% by end-2025.
Valuation: Buy-TP IDR 4,480 (+10.62% Upside)
Using a Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we set a target price of IDR 4,480, implying a 1.99x PBV valuation and offering +10.62% upside potential. We maintain our Buy recommendation.
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