BBNI
Contact our analyst Achmadi Hangradhika
16% upside. Buy
February 13th, 2025
Price Rp4250
Target price Rp4925
Profit Growth Stagnates Amid Higher Interest Expenses
In 2024, BBNI’s Profit After Tax and Minority Interest (PATMI) saw limited growth, rising just 2.67% YoY to IDR 21.46 trillion. The slowdown was primarily driven by a 29.25% YoY surge in interest expenses, which largely offset the 8.32% YoY growth in interest income. However, other operating income provided support, increasing 11.94% YoY, fueled by a 96.54% YoY rise in unrealized gains on FVTPL changes and a 49.97% increase in trading transaction revenue. From a financial ratios perspective (bank-only), NIM declined to 4.2% from 4.6%, while ROAE fell to 14.2% from 15.2%. Looking ahead, we forecast BBNI’s PATMI to grow 7.22% YoY in 2025, with a NIM of 4.10% and ROAE of 14.45%.
Loan Portfolio Expands Significantly, Meeting Projections
As of December 2024, BBNI’s consolidated loan portfolio grew 11.62% YoY, aligning with its FY24 internal target. Growth was primarily driven by the Corporate segment, up 17.63% YoY, while Small and Medium segments declined by 10.93% YoY and 1.18% YoY, respectively. This shift reflects BBNI’s strategy to optimize its portfolio by focusing on higher risk-adjusted return segments. For sustainability loans (bank-only), growth reached 5.19% YoY, with Socioeconomic Advancement & Empowerment contributing 61.42%. Looking ahead, we expect BBNI’s loan portfolio to expand by another 9.98% by December 2025, in line with its 8–10% YoY internal target.
BBNI Strengthens Asset Quality, Targeting Lower NPL in 2025
BBNI improved asset quality in 2024, with its gross NPL ratio declining 0.1 percentage points YoY to 2.0%. The Medium segment saw the biggest improvement, down 30 bps to 5.70%, though it remained the weakest. The Corporate segment, the strongest, improved by 20 bps to 0.70%, while the Small segment deteriorated, rising 1.00 percentage point to 4.50%.By the end of 2025, we anticipate BBNI’s NPL ratio to decline further to 1.88%, driven by its continued focus on higher risk-adjusted return segments.
Strong CASA Ratio Supported by ‘wondr’
BBNI’s digital banking initiatives continue to drive customer engagement, reflected in a 50.9% YoY increase in transaction frequency. Since its launch on July 5, 2024, “wondr” has processed 1.5 billion transactions worth IDR 191 trillion. Meanwhile, mobile banking transactions have overtaken ATM transactions, reaching IDR 391 trillion in Q4-2024, compared to IDR 130 trillion via ATMs.This digital shift has strengthened BBNI’s CASA ratio to 69.9%, with 70% of retail savings now originating from “wondr”.
Valuation: 16% Upside, Buy.
Applying a multi-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we revise our one-year target price to IDR 4,925, reflecting a PBV multiple of 1.02x and offering 16% upside potential. Accordingly, we maintain a Buy recommendation.
In 2024, BBNI’s Profit After Tax and Minority Interest (PATMI) saw limited growth, rising just 2.67% YoY to IDR 21.46 trillion. The slowdown was primarily driven by a 29.25% YoY surge in interest expenses, which largely offset the 8.32% YoY growth in interest income. However, other operating income provided support, increasing 11.94% YoY, fueled by a 96.54% YoY rise in unrealized gains on FVTPL changes and a 49.97% increase in trading transaction revenue. From a financial ratios perspective (bank-only), NIM declined to 4.2% from 4.6%, while ROAE fell to 14.2% from 15.2%. Looking ahead, we forecast BBNI’s PATMI to grow 7.22% YoY in 2025, with a NIM of 4.10% and ROAE of 14.45%.
Loan Portfolio Expands Significantly, Meeting Projections
As of December 2024, BBNI’s consolidated loan portfolio grew 11.62% YoY, aligning with its FY24 internal target. Growth was primarily driven by the Corporate segment, up 17.63% YoY, while Small and Medium segments declined by 10.93% YoY and 1.18% YoY, respectively. This shift reflects BBNI’s strategy to optimize its portfolio by focusing on higher risk-adjusted return segments. For sustainability loans (bank-only), growth reached 5.19% YoY, with Socioeconomic Advancement & Empowerment contributing 61.42%. Looking ahead, we expect BBNI’s loan portfolio to expand by another 9.98% by December 2025, in line with its 8–10% YoY internal target.
BBNI Strengthens Asset Quality, Targeting Lower NPL in 2025
BBNI improved asset quality in 2024, with its gross NPL ratio declining 0.1 percentage points YoY to 2.0%. The Medium segment saw the biggest improvement, down 30 bps to 5.70%, though it remained the weakest. The Corporate segment, the strongest, improved by 20 bps to 0.70%, while the Small segment deteriorated, rising 1.00 percentage point to 4.50%.By the end of 2025, we anticipate BBNI’s NPL ratio to decline further to 1.88%, driven by its continued focus on higher risk-adjusted return segments.
Strong CASA Ratio Supported by ‘wondr’
BBNI’s digital banking initiatives continue to drive customer engagement, reflected in a 50.9% YoY increase in transaction frequency. Since its launch on July 5, 2024, “wondr” has processed 1.5 billion transactions worth IDR 191 trillion. Meanwhile, mobile banking transactions have overtaken ATM transactions, reaching IDR 391 trillion in Q4-2024, compared to IDR 130 trillion via ATMs.This digital shift has strengthened BBNI’s CASA ratio to 69.9%, with 70% of retail savings now originating from “wondr”.
Valuation: 16% Upside, Buy.
Applying a multi-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we revise our one-year target price to IDR 4,925, reflecting a PBV multiple of 1.02x and offering 16% upside potential. Accordingly, we maintain a Buy recommendation.
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