BBNI
Contact our analyst Achmadi Hangradhika
16% upside. Buy
5th August, 2025
Price Rp4220
Target price Rp4910
Multiple Headwinds: Non-Interest Income, PSAK 117, and Provisioning
In 1H 2025, BBNI’s net profit attributable to the parent declined -5.59% YoY to IDR 10.09 trillion, primarily due to a -2.91% YoY drop in other operating income. The most significant drag was a -37.22% YoY decline in foreign exchange gains. Net insurance and investment income also fell sharply, down -56.39% YoY, due to the implementation of PSAK 117 (aligned with IFRS 17), which defers premium recognition over the policy period. Provision expenses rose +7.88% YoY, reflecting BBNI’s cautious risk posture. The bank-only NIM slipped to 3.7% in Q2 2025 and averaged 3.8% in 1H 2025, down from last year due to higher interest expenses (+9.11% YoY in Q2, +7.61% YoY in 1H). We project net profit to grow +6.51% YoY in 2025, reaching IDR 22.86 trillion, with NIM improving slightly to 3.85%, in line with management guidance.
Healthy Loan Growth, Though Below Target
As of June 2025, consolidated gross loans stood at IDR 778.68 trillion, growing +7.11% YoY, slightly below the 8.0–10.0% target. The shortfall was mainly due to an -8.50% decline in the Small segment, driven by reduced KUR disbursement (down -26.7%) amid stricter underwriting and higher repayments. Meanwhile, the Corporate segment showed stable growth, and Consumer loans rose +10.69% YoY, with BBNI prioritizing asset quality. Sustainable financing reached IDR 185.2 trillion, or 24.3% of the bank-only portfolio. We expect total loan growth to reach +8.17% YoY by year-end 2025.
Better Asset Quality
BBNI’s bank-only gross NPL improved by 10 bps YoY to 1.9% in 1H 2025, driven by disciplined client selection and portfolio management. However, consumer NPLs rose +50 bps YoY to 2.1%, while corporate NPLs remained low at 1.1%, slightly down from last year. Medium and small segments had the highest NPLs at 3.8%, but improved by 70 bps and 40 bps, respectively. We expect the bank-only gross NPL to decline further to 1.74% by December 2025.
Strong CASA Growth Supported by ‘wondr’
BBNI’s digital push, including the ‘wondr’ platform, boosted customer acquisition via mobile banking by +46% YoY, driving CASA growth.
• Current Accounts: +25.07% YoY
• Savings Accounts: +10.54% YoY
As a result, CASA ratio rose +130 bps YoY to 72.00%.We forecast CASA growth of 17.52% in 2025, with the CASA ratio reaching 72.68%.
Valuation: BUY with 16% Upside
Using a multi-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we set a target price of IDR 4,910, implying 1.05x PBV and offering +16% upside. We maintain our BUY recommendation, supported by robust CASA momentum, digital expansion, and improving profitability.
In 1H 2025, BBNI’s net profit attributable to the parent declined -5.59% YoY to IDR 10.09 trillion, primarily due to a -2.91% YoY drop in other operating income. The most significant drag was a -37.22% YoY decline in foreign exchange gains. Net insurance and investment income also fell sharply, down -56.39% YoY, due to the implementation of PSAK 117 (aligned with IFRS 17), which defers premium recognition over the policy period. Provision expenses rose +7.88% YoY, reflecting BBNI’s cautious risk posture. The bank-only NIM slipped to 3.7% in Q2 2025 and averaged 3.8% in 1H 2025, down from last year due to higher interest expenses (+9.11% YoY in Q2, +7.61% YoY in 1H). We project net profit to grow +6.51% YoY in 2025, reaching IDR 22.86 trillion, with NIM improving slightly to 3.85%, in line with management guidance.
Healthy Loan Growth, Though Below Target
As of June 2025, consolidated gross loans stood at IDR 778.68 trillion, growing +7.11% YoY, slightly below the 8.0–10.0% target. The shortfall was mainly due to an -8.50% decline in the Small segment, driven by reduced KUR disbursement (down -26.7%) amid stricter underwriting and higher repayments. Meanwhile, the Corporate segment showed stable growth, and Consumer loans rose +10.69% YoY, with BBNI prioritizing asset quality. Sustainable financing reached IDR 185.2 trillion, or 24.3% of the bank-only portfolio. We expect total loan growth to reach +8.17% YoY by year-end 2025.
Better Asset Quality
BBNI’s bank-only gross NPL improved by 10 bps YoY to 1.9% in 1H 2025, driven by disciplined client selection and portfolio management. However, consumer NPLs rose +50 bps YoY to 2.1%, while corporate NPLs remained low at 1.1%, slightly down from last year. Medium and small segments had the highest NPLs at 3.8%, but improved by 70 bps and 40 bps, respectively. We expect the bank-only gross NPL to decline further to 1.74% by December 2025.
Strong CASA Growth Supported by ‘wondr’
BBNI’s digital push, including the ‘wondr’ platform, boosted customer acquisition via mobile banking by +46% YoY, driving CASA growth.
• Current Accounts: +25.07% YoY
• Savings Accounts: +10.54% YoY
As a result, CASA ratio rose +130 bps YoY to 72.00%.We forecast CASA growth of 17.52% in 2025, with the CASA ratio reaching 72.68%.
Valuation: BUY with 16% Upside
Using a multi-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we set a target price of IDR 4,910, implying 1.05x PBV and offering +16% upside. We maintain our BUY recommendation, supported by robust CASA momentum, digital expansion, and improving profitability.
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