BBCA
Contact our analyst Achmadi
16% upside, Buy
30th October 2025
Price Rp8,525
Target price Rp9,925
Steady Earnings Growth
In 9M-2025, BBCA’s net profit attributable to the parent entity grew by 5.66% YoY, reaching IDR 43.40 trillion. This performance was supported by a 4.95% YoY increase in net interest income to IDR 63.95 trillion and an 11.87% YoY increase in other operating income, with net income from transactions at FVTPL recording the highest growth at +20.17% YoY. BBCA’s bank-only NIM for Q3-2025 stood at 5.7%, down 20 bps compared to Q4-2024, while the 9M-2025 level remained stable at 5.8%. Despite slight NIM compression, ROA improved 10 bps YoY to 4% in 9M-2025. We forecast BBCA’s net profit attributable to the parent to reach IDR 58.25 trillion in FY-2025, representing 6.22% YoY growth.
Lending Growth in Line with Strategic Targets
As of September 2025, BBCA’s consolidated loan portfolio rose 7.93% YoY to IDR 944.12 trillion, in line with its internal 6–8% growth target. All segments expanded, with Corporate loans remaining the largest contributor and growing 10.36% YoY. Commercial & SME loans rose 6.58% YoY, and Consumer loans increased 3.28% YoY, driven by mortgage growth of 6.4% YoY. Sustainable loans continued to expand, rising 12.7% YoY to IDR 241 trillion, representing 25.5% of total loans. We expect consolidated loans to increase by 6.12% YoY to IDR 978.28 trillion by end-2025.
Corporate Segment Maintains Healthiest Asset Quality
BBCA’s asset quality remained strong as of September 2025, with consolidated and bank-only gross NPLs at 2.1%, improving 10 bps QoQ and stable YoY. The Corporate segment maintained the strongest credit profile with NPL of 1.46%, improving 20 bps YoY. The Consumer segment softened to 2.24% (+40 bps YoY), while the Commercial & SME segment remained stable at 2.84% (-2 bps YoY). We expect consolidated gross NPL to improve to 2.01% and bank-only to 1.97% by end-2025.
CASA Ratio Improves Amid Higher Transaction Activity
BBCA’s consolidated CASA ratio rose to 82.92% (+160 bps YoY), supported by growth in Current Accounts (14.47% YoY) and Savings Accounts (+5.80% YoY) in line with BCA’s total transaction frequency, which increased by 78% over the past three years. We expect the CASA ratio to reach 83.02% by year-end 2025.
Buyback Program Amid Market Volatility
BBCA announced a share buyback program of up to IDR 5 trillion to help stabilize its share price during market volatility. The buyback period runs from 22 October 2025 to 19 January 2026, or earlier if completed, and will be executed through the IDX regular market at a maximum purchase price of IDR 9,200 per share.
Valuation: 16% Upside, Buy
Using a Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we revise our one-year target price for BBCA to IDR 9,925, implying a PBV of 4.29× and offering 16% upside. We maintain our BUY recommendation.
In 9M-2025, BBCA’s net profit attributable to the parent entity grew by 5.66% YoY, reaching IDR 43.40 trillion. This performance was supported by a 4.95% YoY increase in net interest income to IDR 63.95 trillion and an 11.87% YoY increase in other operating income, with net income from transactions at FVTPL recording the highest growth at +20.17% YoY. BBCA’s bank-only NIM for Q3-2025 stood at 5.7%, down 20 bps compared to Q4-2024, while the 9M-2025 level remained stable at 5.8%. Despite slight NIM compression, ROA improved 10 bps YoY to 4% in 9M-2025. We forecast BBCA’s net profit attributable to the parent to reach IDR 58.25 trillion in FY-2025, representing 6.22% YoY growth.
Lending Growth in Line with Strategic Targets
As of September 2025, BBCA’s consolidated loan portfolio rose 7.93% YoY to IDR 944.12 trillion, in line with its internal 6–8% growth target. All segments expanded, with Corporate loans remaining the largest contributor and growing 10.36% YoY. Commercial & SME loans rose 6.58% YoY, and Consumer loans increased 3.28% YoY, driven by mortgage growth of 6.4% YoY. Sustainable loans continued to expand, rising 12.7% YoY to IDR 241 trillion, representing 25.5% of total loans. We expect consolidated loans to increase by 6.12% YoY to IDR 978.28 trillion by end-2025.
Corporate Segment Maintains Healthiest Asset Quality
BBCA’s asset quality remained strong as of September 2025, with consolidated and bank-only gross NPLs at 2.1%, improving 10 bps QoQ and stable YoY. The Corporate segment maintained the strongest credit profile with NPL of 1.46%, improving 20 bps YoY. The Consumer segment softened to 2.24% (+40 bps YoY), while the Commercial & SME segment remained stable at 2.84% (-2 bps YoY). We expect consolidated gross NPL to improve to 2.01% and bank-only to 1.97% by end-2025.
CASA Ratio Improves Amid Higher Transaction Activity
BBCA’s consolidated CASA ratio rose to 82.92% (+160 bps YoY), supported by growth in Current Accounts (14.47% YoY) and Savings Accounts (+5.80% YoY) in line with BCA’s total transaction frequency, which increased by 78% over the past three years. We expect the CASA ratio to reach 83.02% by year-end 2025.
Buyback Program Amid Market Volatility
BBCA announced a share buyback program of up to IDR 5 trillion to help stabilize its share price during market volatility. The buyback period runs from 22 October 2025 to 19 January 2026, or earlier if completed, and will be executed through the IDX regular market at a maximum purchase price of IDR 9,200 per share.
Valuation: 16% Upside, Buy
Using a Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we revise our one-year target price for BBCA to IDR 9,925, implying a PBV of 4.29× and offering 16% upside. We maintain our BUY recommendation.
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