BBCA
Contact our analyst Achmadi
39% upside, Buy
18th May 2026
Price Rp6,125
Target price Rp8,500
Earnings Growth Remains Limited Amid Persistent Yield Pressure
In Q1-2026, BBCA recorded modest profitability growth, with net income attributable to the parent increasing 3.8% YoY to IDR 14.68 trillion. The limited earnings growth was primarily driven by weaker Net Interest Income (NII), as declining loan yields outpaced the reduction in funding costs, resulting in a 0.05% YoY decline in NII and a 40 bps YoY contraction in bank-only NIM to 5.40%.Provision expenses also increased 19.52% YoY, reflecting management’s more prudent provisioning approach amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Nevertheless, non-interest income remained strong, growing 14.21% YoY, supported by a 40.38% YoY increase in FVTPL income and a 9.34% YoY rise in fee and commission income. For FY2026, we forecast BBCA’s net income attributable to the parent to grow 2.47% YoY to IDR 58.96 trillion, while consolidated NIM is projected to moderate to 5.83%, reflecting continued pressure on asset yields.
Loan Growth Moderates Despite Strong CASA Expansion
As of March 2026, BBCA recorded consolidated loan growth of 5.59% YoY, below management’s 8%–10% guidance. Lending remained supported by a strong funding base, with CASA increasing 11.22% YoY, accounting for 84.27% of total third-party funds, while total third-party funds grew 8.3% YoY. Loan growth was mainly driven by the corporate segment, which expanded 9.11% YoY, while the consumer segment declined 1.91% YoY, primarily due to weaker vehicle financing demand. Sustainable financing increased 10.0% YoY, while green financing rose 7.7% YoY, supported by a 53.5% YoY increase in renewable energy financing. For FY2026, we forecast consolidated loan growth of 7.63% YoY, slightly below management guidance, as borrowers remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty. The CASA ratio is projected at 84.40%.
Credit Quality Remains Well Controlled
BBCA’s asset quality remained healthy as of March 2026, with both consolidated and bank-only gross NPL ratios at 1.8%, improving 20 bps YoY, although rising 10 bps QoQ. The corporate segment continued to show the strongest asset quality, with gross NPL improving 40 bps YoY to 1.29%.We expect BBCA’s consolidated gross NPL ratio to remain stable at 1.82% by end-2026, supported by prudent underwriting standards and conservative risk management.
More Frequent Dividend Distribution Starting in 2026
Beginning in 2026, BBCA plans to adopt a more frequent dividend distribution policy, with interim dividends expected in Q2, Q3, and Q4, while the final dividend will continue to be distributed in April 2027.Management indicated that the dividend payout ratio (DPR) will depend on excess capital above Tier 1 requirements, particularly to preserve flexibility for future loan growth, especially in the large corporate and conglomerate segments. As such, the 2026 DPR remains under review.
Valuation: Buy with 39% Upside
We revise our 12-month target price to IDR 8,500 from IDR 9,225, implying 39% upside from the current share price and a valuation of 3.75x PBV. Our valuation is based on an updated Dividend Discount Model (DDM) that reflects current market conditions, forward macroeconomic assumptions, and BBCA’s strong fundamentals. We maintain our BUY recommendation.
In Q1-2026, BBCA recorded modest profitability growth, with net income attributable to the parent increasing 3.8% YoY to IDR 14.68 trillion. The limited earnings growth was primarily driven by weaker Net Interest Income (NII), as declining loan yields outpaced the reduction in funding costs, resulting in a 0.05% YoY decline in NII and a 40 bps YoY contraction in bank-only NIM to 5.40%.Provision expenses also increased 19.52% YoY, reflecting management’s more prudent provisioning approach amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Nevertheless, non-interest income remained strong, growing 14.21% YoY, supported by a 40.38% YoY increase in FVTPL income and a 9.34% YoY rise in fee and commission income. For FY2026, we forecast BBCA’s net income attributable to the parent to grow 2.47% YoY to IDR 58.96 trillion, while consolidated NIM is projected to moderate to 5.83%, reflecting continued pressure on asset yields.
Loan Growth Moderates Despite Strong CASA Expansion
As of March 2026, BBCA recorded consolidated loan growth of 5.59% YoY, below management’s 8%–10% guidance. Lending remained supported by a strong funding base, with CASA increasing 11.22% YoY, accounting for 84.27% of total third-party funds, while total third-party funds grew 8.3% YoY. Loan growth was mainly driven by the corporate segment, which expanded 9.11% YoY, while the consumer segment declined 1.91% YoY, primarily due to weaker vehicle financing demand. Sustainable financing increased 10.0% YoY, while green financing rose 7.7% YoY, supported by a 53.5% YoY increase in renewable energy financing. For FY2026, we forecast consolidated loan growth of 7.63% YoY, slightly below management guidance, as borrowers remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty. The CASA ratio is projected at 84.40%.
Credit Quality Remains Well Controlled
BBCA’s asset quality remained healthy as of March 2026, with both consolidated and bank-only gross NPL ratios at 1.8%, improving 20 bps YoY, although rising 10 bps QoQ. The corporate segment continued to show the strongest asset quality, with gross NPL improving 40 bps YoY to 1.29%.We expect BBCA’s consolidated gross NPL ratio to remain stable at 1.82% by end-2026, supported by prudent underwriting standards and conservative risk management.
More Frequent Dividend Distribution Starting in 2026
Beginning in 2026, BBCA plans to adopt a more frequent dividend distribution policy, with interim dividends expected in Q2, Q3, and Q4, while the final dividend will continue to be distributed in April 2027.Management indicated that the dividend payout ratio (DPR) will depend on excess capital above Tier 1 requirements, particularly to preserve flexibility for future loan growth, especially in the large corporate and conglomerate segments. As such, the 2026 DPR remains under review.
Valuation: Buy with 39% Upside
We revise our 12-month target price to IDR 8,500 from IDR 9,225, implying 39% upside from the current share price and a valuation of 3.75x PBV. Our valuation is based on an updated Dividend Discount Model (DDM) that reflects current market conditions, forward macroeconomic assumptions, and BBCA’s strong fundamentals. We maintain our BUY recommendation.
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