BBCA
Contact our analyst Achmadi
18% upside, Buy
7th May 2025
Price Rp9,075
Target price Rp10,750
Consistent Profit Growth in Q1-2025
BBCA delivered solid earnings in Q1 2025, with net income attributable to the parent entity rising 9.83% YoY to IDR 14.14 trillion. Net Interest Income increased by 6.54% YoY, driving a NIM of 5.80%, up 20 bps YoY. Other Operating Income also contributed positively, rising 6.31% YoY, while net income from FVTPL transactions surged 32.53% YoY. Looking ahead, we forecast full-year 2025 net income to grow by 6.25% YoY, with NIM reaching 6.18%.
Strong Loan Growth in Early 2025
As of March 2025, BBCA’s consolidated loan portfolio rose 12.62% YoY to IDR 941.17 trillion, led by a 13.93% increase in corporate loans. The manufacturing sector was the largest contributor, accounting for 22.11% of total loans. BBCA’s commitment to sustainable finance is evident, with the ESG loan portfolio growing 19% YoY to IDR 235 trillion. We project the loan portfolio will expand to IDR 1,022.35 trillion by year-end 2025, a 10.90% YoY growth.
NPL Slightly Up, SML Improved
As of March 2025, Gross NPL (consolidated and bank-only) rose 10 bps YoY to 2.00%. The corporate segment contributed 40% of total NPLs. Meanwhile, the Special Mention Loan (SML) ratio improved by 40 bps YoY to 2.10%. We expect the consolidated NPL ratio to improve slightly to 1.98% by December 2025, with bank-only NPL at 1.94%.
CASA Growth Remains Strong
BBCA’s CASA ratio reached 82.05% in March 2025, up 134 bps YoY. Current accounts grew 9.53% YoY, making up 50% of third-party funds. Savings accounts rose 7.46% YoY, bringing total third-party funds up by 6.50% YoY. Digital transactions continued to support growth, with mobile and internet banking volume increasing 22% YoY. We forecast the CASA ratio to reach 82.60%, and third-party funds to grow 9.85% by end-2025.
Buyback Program Support Market Confidence
In response to market volatility, BBCA announced a share buyback program from March 26 to June 24, 2025, with Maximum allocation IDR 1 trillion. Buyback price cap at IDR 9,200 per share. As of March 2025, BBCA repurchased 1.17 million shares at an average price of IDR 8,512.50, totaling IDR 9.99 billion.
Valuation: Buy, TP IDR 10,750 (18%)
Our DDM valuation revises BBCA’s one-year target price to IDR 10,750, implying a 4.67x PBV and a 18% upside. We maintain our Buy recommendation.
BBCA delivered solid earnings in Q1 2025, with net income attributable to the parent entity rising 9.83% YoY to IDR 14.14 trillion. Net Interest Income increased by 6.54% YoY, driving a NIM of 5.80%, up 20 bps YoY. Other Operating Income also contributed positively, rising 6.31% YoY, while net income from FVTPL transactions surged 32.53% YoY. Looking ahead, we forecast full-year 2025 net income to grow by 6.25% YoY, with NIM reaching 6.18%.
Strong Loan Growth in Early 2025
As of March 2025, BBCA’s consolidated loan portfolio rose 12.62% YoY to IDR 941.17 trillion, led by a 13.93% increase in corporate loans. The manufacturing sector was the largest contributor, accounting for 22.11% of total loans. BBCA’s commitment to sustainable finance is evident, with the ESG loan portfolio growing 19% YoY to IDR 235 trillion. We project the loan portfolio will expand to IDR 1,022.35 trillion by year-end 2025, a 10.90% YoY growth.
NPL Slightly Up, SML Improved
As of March 2025, Gross NPL (consolidated and bank-only) rose 10 bps YoY to 2.00%. The corporate segment contributed 40% of total NPLs. Meanwhile, the Special Mention Loan (SML) ratio improved by 40 bps YoY to 2.10%. We expect the consolidated NPL ratio to improve slightly to 1.98% by December 2025, with bank-only NPL at 1.94%.
CASA Growth Remains Strong
BBCA’s CASA ratio reached 82.05% in March 2025, up 134 bps YoY. Current accounts grew 9.53% YoY, making up 50% of third-party funds. Savings accounts rose 7.46% YoY, bringing total third-party funds up by 6.50% YoY. Digital transactions continued to support growth, with mobile and internet banking volume increasing 22% YoY. We forecast the CASA ratio to reach 82.60%, and third-party funds to grow 9.85% by end-2025.
Buyback Program Support Market Confidence
In response to market volatility, BBCA announced a share buyback program from March 26 to June 24, 2025, with Maximum allocation IDR 1 trillion. Buyback price cap at IDR 9,200 per share. As of March 2025, BBCA repurchased 1.17 million shares at an average price of IDR 8,512.50, totaling IDR 9.99 billion.
Valuation: Buy, TP IDR 10,750 (18%)
Our DDM valuation revises BBCA’s one-year target price to IDR 10,750, implying a 4.67x PBV and a 18% upside. We maintain our Buy recommendation.
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